Polls

Cassidy has small edge over Landrieu head to head

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Public Policy Polling’s newest Louisiana poll finds Bill Cassidy with a slight lead over Mary Landrieu in a possible December runoff election, 48/45. The two candidates had been tied at 47 on PPP’s last look at the race in late June. Neither candidate is very popular with voters. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of Cassidy to 41% with an unfavorable opinion, numbers that while poor are actually slightly improved from a -8 net favorability rating on the previous poll at 28/36. Landrieu’s approval numbers are worse though- 42% give her good marks to 52% who disapprove. Those numbers are identical to what they were in late June.

There has been a lot of speculation about how turnout might influence the dynamics in a December runoff election, and on that front we find something that is at least a little disturbing for Democrats. 89% of likely voters for November also say that they will definitely vote in a runoff election if there is one. Among those voters Cassidy’s lead expands to 50/45. Among the 11% of voters who say just they will probably vote, that the chances are 50/50, or that they will probably not vote Landrieu leads by 13 points at 40/27.

Landrieu does at least continue to have a clear lead in the November election. 42% of voters say they will support her to 34% for Bill Cassidy and 12% for Rob Maness with 2% saying they will support one of the other minor candidates in the race. Maness continues to be no real threat to Cassidy’s chances of finishing in the top two.

Cassidy leads Landrieu in the runoff based on two key things: he leads with independents at 46/37, and he is also winning over 18% of Democrats compared to the 13% of Republicans Landrieu is getting. This race features about as large of a racial divide as we ever see- Cassidy is up 68/24 with white voters, while Landrieu leads 89/7 with African Americans.

“Our last three Louisiana polls have all found Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy within 3 points of each other,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But overall things have been creeping slightly in Cassidy’s direction.”

PPP surveyed 1,141 likely voters from September 25th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.9%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mary
Landrieu’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .52%
Not sure …………….. . 7%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Cassidy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Maness?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Q5 The main candidates for U.S. Senate this fall
are Democrat Mary Landrieu, Republican Bill
Cassidy, and Republican Rob Maness. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 42%
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 34%
Rob Maness……………………………………………. 12%
Someone else…………………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q6 Combined horse race, with minor candidate
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Landrieu or Cassidy
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 45%
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q7 If there was a runoff election for the U.S.
Senate in December, would you definitely vote,
probably vote, are the chances 50/50, or would
you probably not vote?
Would definitely vote………………………………… 89%
Would probably vote ………………………………… 5%
Chances are 50/50 ………………………………….. 5%
Would probably not vote …………………………… 1%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Bobby Jindal’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .34%
Disapprove…………. .55%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
David Vitter’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .19%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jay Dardenne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitch Landrieu?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Bel Edwards?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q13 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican David Vitter and Democrat John
Bel Edwards, who would you vote for?
David Vitter …………………………………………….. 50%
John Bel Edwards……………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q14 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican Jay Dardenne and Democrat John
Bel Edwards, who would you vote for?
Jay Dardenne …………………………………………. 44%
John Bel Edwards……………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q15 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican David Vitter and Democrat Mitch
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
David Vitter …………………………………………….. 47%
Mitch Landrieu ………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q16 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican Jay Dardenne and Democrat Mitch
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
Jay Dardenne …………………………………………. 43%
Mitch Landrieu ………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q17 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican Jay Dardenne and Republican
David Vitter, who would you vote for?
Jay Dardenne …………………………………………. 30%
David Vitter …………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q18 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 41%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q19 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q21 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q22 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Bobby Jindal, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q23 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q24 Do you think Bobby Jindal should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should ………………………………………. 20%
Think he should not …………………………………. 68%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q25 If Bobby Jindal was the Republican candidate
for Vice President in 2016, would that make
you more or less likely to support the
Republican nominee, or would it not make a
difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 28%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 42%
Wouldn’t make a difference……………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q26 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Edwin Edwards?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q27 Who would you rather have as Governor:
Edwin Edwards or Bobby Jindal?
Edwin Edwards ……………………………………….. 47%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q28 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 55%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q29 Louisiana is eligible to receive new federal
funding to pay for health care through the
Medicaid program. Do you think the Louisiana
state government should accept this federal
funding to expand Medicaid coverage, or not?
Think Louisiana should …………………………….. 56%
Think it should not……………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q30 Do you approve or disapprove of Mary
Landrieu helping someone do a keg stand at a
recent LSU football game, or do you not care?
Approve …………………………………………………. 21%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Don’t care ………………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q31 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 54%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%

Q32 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 24%

Q33 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q34 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 19%

Q35 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 64%
African-American …………………………………….. 30%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q36 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

Q37 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

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