Polls

Bush leads Republicans, neck and neck with Clinton

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest poll finds Jeb Bush leading the field for the Republican nomination in 2016. Bush picks up 30% of the vote from likely Republican primary voters, with Marco Rubio coming in second with just 14%. The only other person to get double-digit support is Rand Paul with 11%. Bush leads among voters self-described as moderate, somewhat conservative, and very conservative.

However, a potential match-up between Bush and Hillary Clinton is a dead heat right now, with Clinton picking up 46% to Bush’s 45%. This comes despite his high favorability rating of 51% with 35% unfavorable, and Clinton’s almost even rating with 46% favorable and 47% unfavorable. Despite the fact that Bush represents the toughest test for Clinton in Florida, 50% of voters think he should not run in 2016 compared to only 35% that think he should. This is a better result than Marco Rubio receives though, as 59% of voters think that Rubio should not run in 2016.

The other potential Republican match-ups with Clinton do not come nearly as close as Bush. Clinton leads Chris Christie 46/38, Ted Cruz 50/39, Mike Huckabee 48/41, Rand Paul 48/42, and Rubio 48/44. Clinton picks up a majority of both moderates and younger voters in all of these other match-ups.

“Voters in Florida aren’t that crazy about either Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio running for President,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “A majority of Floridians think they should sit out the race, and they both trail Hillary Clinton by small margins head to head.”

A majority (53%) supports the United States ending its embargo against Cuba. It gets support on both sides of the aisle, as 57% of Democrats and 42% of Republicans support ending the embargo, along with 64% of independents. Increasing the minimum wage gets a large amount of support as well, with a majority of both Democrats (89%) and independents (51%) supporting a raise.

PPP surveyed 672 Florida voters, including 315 Republican primary voters and 251 Democratic primary voters, from June 6th to 9th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.8%, for the Republican primary component it’s +/- 5.5%, and for the Democratic primary component it’s +/-6.2%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable…………… .51%
Unfavorable ……….. .35%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable…………… .46%
Unfavorable ……….. .47%
Not sure …………….. . 7%

Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q9 Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President
in 2016, or not?
Think he should ….. .35%
Think he should not .50%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q10 Do you think Marco Rubio should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should ….. .27%
Think he should not .59%
Not sure …………….. .14%

Q11 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ……………… .59%
Oppose ……………… .33%
Not sure …………….. . 8%

Q12 Do you think the U.S. embargo of Cuba should
continue, or do you think it should be ended?
Think it should continue ……………………………. 22%
Think it should be ended…………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q13 Are you rooting for the Miami Heat or San
Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals, or do you not
care?
Heat ………………………………………………………. 31%
Spurs …………………………………………………….. 13%
Don’t care ………………………………………………. 57%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of LeBron James?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jameis Winston?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%

Q16 Out of the seven Florida colleges with Division
1 football teams — Central Florida University,
the University of Florida, Florida Atlantic
University, Florida International University,
Florida State University, the University of
Miami, and the University of South Florida —
which is your favorite?
Central Florida ………………………………………… 11%
Florida……………………………………………………. 22%
Florida Atlantic ………………………………………… 5%
Florida International …………………………………. 2%
Florida State …………………………………………… 19%
Miami …………………………………………………….. 10%
South Florida ………………………………………….. 4%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q17 (Q17-18 asked only of UF fans) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Will
Muschamp is doing as football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%

Q18 Do you think Will Muschamp should return for
the 2014 season, or do you think he should be
replaced?
Think he should return ……………………………… 43%
Think he should be replaced……………………… 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q19 (Asked only of FSU fans:) Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Jimbo Fisher is doing as
football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 55%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q20 (Asked only of Miami fans:) Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Al Golden is doing as
football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%

Q21 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, New
York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, or Tampa
Bay Rays?
Braves …………………………………………………… 17%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 8%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 5%
Marlins …………………………………………………… 14%
Mets………………………………………………………. 2%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 11%
Phillies …………………………………………………… 2%
Rays ……………………………………………………… 10%
Someone else / Not a baseball fan …………….. 32%

Q22 (Q22-23 asked only of Marlins fans) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Mike
Redmond is doing as manager?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 5%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%

Q23 What do you think the outcome of the 2014
season will be for the Marlins? Do you think
they will win the World Series, win the National
League pennant but not the World Series,
make the playoffs but not win the pennant, or
not make the playoffs at all?
Win the World Series ……………………………….. 19%
Win the pennant but not the World Series …… 19%
Make the playoffs but not win the pennant…… 27%
Not make the playoffs at all……………………….. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q24 (Q24-25 asked only of Rays fans) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Joe Maddon
is doing as manager?
Approve …………………………………………………. 68%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q25 What do you think the outcome of the 2014
season will be for the Rays? Do you think they
will win the World Series, win the American
League pennant but not the World Series,
make the playoffs but not win the pennant, or
not make the playoffs at all?
Win the World Series ……………………………….. 12%
Win the pennant but not the World Series …… 8%
Make the playoffs but not win the pennant…… 39%
Not make the playoffs at all……………………….. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q26 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%

Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q29 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 25%

Q30 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 68%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q31 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

Q32 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 30%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 8%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 9%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 7%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 1%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 11%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 14%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 2%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 7%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 10%

Q2 If you had to choose between just Jeb Bush
and Marco Rubio as the Republican candidate
for President in 2016, who would you pick?
Jeb Bush……………. .41%
Marco Rubio ………. .45%
Not sure …………….. .14%

Q3 Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President
in 2016, or not?
Think he should ….. .47%
Think he should not .38%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q4 Do you think Marco Rubio should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should ….. .42%
Think he should not .41%
Not sure …………….. .17%

Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 28%

Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 7%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 5%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 66%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 0%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 8%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 9%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 42%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 10%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 5%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%

Q4 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 57%
African-American …………………………………….. 23%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

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