Polls

New Mexicans not into Martinez 2016 buzz

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Susana Martinez is in a good position to be reelected as Governor, but New Mexico voters don’t think much of the possibility of her running for President in 2016. Only 17% of voters in the state think she should make a White House bid to 69% who believe she should sit it out. Even among Republican voters only 22% think she should seek that office to 59% who dissent.

Martinez would trail Hillary Clinton 53/39 in a hypothetical contest in the state. That does make her the strongest potential Republican candidate though. Clinton would also lead Rand Paul 51/36, Jeb Bush 53/37, Ted Cruz 54/37, Chris Christie 53/35, and Mike Huckabee 55/34.

“New Mexico has been a blowout for the Democrats in the last 2 Presidential elections,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And if Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2016 it looks like that trend will continue.”

New Mexico voters are still pretty closely divided on the issue of gay marriage- 47% support it and 45% are opposed. But when it comes to the impact that its being legal for the last few months has had in the state there’s a pretty strong consensus it hasn’t been a big deal. Only 24% think it’s had a negative impact on their lives with 76% saying either that it’s had no impact at all (58%) or a positive effect (18%).

New Mexico voters narrowly support legalizing recreational marijuana use, 48/46. Voters under 45 overwhelmingly support the idea, 57/39, suggesting it may just be a question of time. There’s a pretty strong consensus in favor of medical marijuana there already- 70% support it to only 24% who are opposed and there’s bipartisan support from Democrats (78/17), independents (77/20), and Republicans (52/38) alike.

New Mexicans strongly support raising the minimum wage to $10 an hour, 58/32. As we find most places, the concept meets with favor from most Democrats (77/15) as well as about a third of Republicans (31/55).

PPP surveyed 674 registered voters from March 20th to 23rdThe margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.8%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Martin Heinrich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q2 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in New Mexico, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 47%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q3 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..45%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………29%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q4 Has the legalization of gay marriage in New
Mexico had a positive or negative impact on
your life, or has it not had any impact at all?
Positive impact………………………………………… 18%
Negative impact ………………………………………. 24%
No impact at all ……………………………………….. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 53%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 53%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 54%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 55%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Susana Martinez, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 53%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 Do you think Susana Martinez should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think she should……………………………………… 17%
Think she should not………………………………… 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
New Mexico legislature is doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 25%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q13 If the election for the New Mexico House of
Representatives was today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q14 The New Mexico legislature voted this year to
block a constitutional amendment that would
allow the people to vote on raising the
minimum wage in New Mexico. If your
legislator did not support your right to vote to
raise the minimum wage, would you be more or
less likely to vote for this representative, or
would it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 19%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 51%
Wouldn’t make a difference……………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q15 The legislature refused to even vote on a
constitutional amendment that would allow the
people to vote on expanding childhood
education . Does this make you more or less
likely to vote for your state legislator, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 23%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 44%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Vladimir Putin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 70%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q17 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 58%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q18 Do you think marijuana should be legally
allowed for medical purposes with the approval
of a doctor, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 70%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q19 Do you think marijuana should be legally
allowed for recreational use, that stores should
be allowed to sell it, and that its sales should
be taxed and regulated similarly to alcohol, or
not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 48%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q20 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves,
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Colorado
Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York
Yankees, or Texas Rangers?
Diamondbacks ………………………………………… 6%
Braves …………………………………………………… 4%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 9%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 5%
Rockies………………………………………………….. 9%
Dodgers …………………………………………………. 10%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 7%
Rangers …………………………………………………. 4%
Someone else / Don’t have a favorite …………. 45%

Q21 Do you prefer green chiles or red chiles?
Green…………………………………………………….. 66%
Red ……………………………………………………….. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q22 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the TV show Breaking Bad?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%

Q23 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter White?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%

Q24 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Susana Martinez and Walter White, who would
you vote for?
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 52%
Walter White …………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q25 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 11%

Q26 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q28 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 22%

Q29 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 38%
White …………………………………………………….. 53%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q30 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

Q31 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

 

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