Polls

Clinton dominates, Huckabee narrowly leads Iowa pack

| Tom Jensen

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Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest poll in Iowa finds a tale of two primaries. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to lead all potential candidates by wide margins. She keeps 67% of the Democratic vote, while the only other candidates to garner support were Joe Biden at 12%, Elizabeth Warren at 5%, Mark Warner at 3%, Andrew Cuomo at 2%, and Cory Booker at 1%. The 67% figure is down slightly from when we polled in July (71%), but that decrease in support seems to have gone to voters now unsure about whom they will vote for instead of any specific candidate. Clinton fares best among those identifying as very liberal (79% of the vote) and women (71%). While her favorability rating is also down slightly from July, 82% of Democratic voters still view her favorably, compared to only 9% who view her unfavorably.

When Clinton is out of the picture, the main beneficiary is Joe Biden, who becomes the frontrunner with 40% of the vote. Elizabeth Warren also emerges as a contender with 13%. In a scenario with neither Clinton nor Biden, Warren leads all candidates with 21% of the vote. Both Biden and Warren boast strong favorability ratings at 66/13 and 43/8, respectively.

As for the Republicans, we still find a wide-open race. Eight different candidates garner at least 7% of the vote. Mike Huckabee has a slight lead with 17%, followed by Rand Paul at 14%, Jeb Bush at 13%, Chris Christie and Ted Cruz at 10%, Paul Ryan at 9%, Scott Walker and Bobby Jindal at 7%, and Marco Rubio at 3%. Huckabee draws much of his support from those identifying as very conservative, where he gets 28% of the vote, while Rand Paul and Jeb Bush lead among moderates with 20% and 19%, respectively. Most candidates still have strong favorability ratings with the exception of Chris Christie, who garners an unfavorable opinion from 35% of Iowa Republican voters.

“Hillary Clinton continues to dominate in our Iowa polling as she does everywhere,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There is no Democratic alternative to her. On the other hand the Republican primary is as wide open as ever.”

PPP surveyed 869 Iowa voters, including 335 Democratic and 283 Republican primary voters, from February 20th to 23rd. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.3%, for the Democratic part it’s +/-5.4%, and for the Republican primary component it’s +/-5.8%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 13%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 10%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 10%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 17%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 7%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 14%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 3%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 9%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 7%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Walker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Kasich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 43%
Man……………………………………………………….. 57%

Q18 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 12%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 1%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 67%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 0%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 3%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%

Q2 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 40%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 2%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 8%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 2%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 5%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 13%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 28%

Q3 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 8%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 11%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 3%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 6%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 2%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 21%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 47%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Booker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 82%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirsten Gillibrand?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Howard Dean?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 41%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 9%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 58%
Man……………………………………………………….. 42%

Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

General Election Toplines

Q1 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q2 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q5 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%

Q9 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q11 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

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