Polls

Daines favored for Baucus’ seat

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Some Democrats, trying to clear the field for John Walsh, are frustrated by John Bohlinger’s candidacy for U.S. Senate in Montana, but at this point, it doesn’t really matter which one runs against current at-large Rep. Steve Daines next fall—they both are down double digits. Only 37% of voters approve of Daines’ job performance, with 42% disapproving, down a net 13 points since PPP last polled the state in June, when it was 41-33. But the partisanship of the electorate, President Obama’s 34% approval rating, the toxicity of Obamacare, and both Democrats’ low profiles help Daines post a 51-36 lead over Bohlinger and 52-35 over Walsh. In June, Daines had 45% to 49% of the vote against other Democrats.

Part of Daines’ lead is name identification. Only 21% of voters are unfamiliar with him, versus 40% for Bohlinger and 53% for Walsh. Because of that, about twice as many Democrats and independents are undecided as Republicans.

The race is already closer in the event Champ Edmunds defeats Daines in the primary, but that looks unlikely. 66% of GOP primary voters prefer Daines to only 7% behind Edmunds. Edmunds is even less well-known than the Democrats, but he leads each by two points (39-37 over Bohlinger and 38-36 over Walsh).

Walsh is not only the favorite of D.C. Democrats but also actual Montana Democrats. Though they know and like Bohlinger better (54-18 favorability spread versus Walsh’s 44-14), Walsh has a nominal 39-31 lead over Bohlinger, with Dirk Adams at 3%.

Daines’ House seat also has a definite GOP lean in all four matchups PPP tested. The various Republicans have leads of five to 13 points over Democrat John Lewis.

“Steve Daines started out as the favorite in this race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The problems with Obamacare, as well as President Obama’s general unpopularity, have helped stake him to a larger advantage at this early stage of the campaign.”

PPP surveyed 952 Montana voters, including an oversample of 469 usual Republican primary voters and 381 Democratic primary voters, from November 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.2%, +/-4.5% for the GOP sample, and +/-5.0% for the Democratic portion. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Steve Daines’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Bohlinger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Champ Edmunds?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Walsh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Steve Daines and Democrat John
Bohlinger, who would you vote for?
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 51%
John Bohlinger………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Steve Daines and Democrat John
Walsh, who would you vote for?
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 52%
John Walsh …………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Champ Edmunds and Democrat
John Bohlinger, who would you vote for?
Champ Edmunds …………………………………….. 39%
John Bohlinger………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Champ Edmunds and Democrat
John Walsh, who would you vote for?
Champ Edmunds …………………………………….. 38%
John Walsh …………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Lewis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brad Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matthew Rosendale?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Corey Stapleton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ryan Zinke?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%

Q15 If the candidates for U.S. House next year were
Democrat John Lewis and Republican Brad
Johnson, who would you vote for?
John Lewis……………………………………………… 32%
Brad Johnson………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q16 If the candidates for U.S. House next year were
Democrat John Lewis and Republican Matthew
Rosendale, who would you vote for?
John Lewis……………………………………………… 32%
Matthew Rosendale …………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q17 If the candidates for U.S. House next year were
Democrat John Lewis and Republican Corey
Stapleton, who would you vote for?
John Lewis……………………………………………… 31%
Corey Stapleton ………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q18 If the candidates for U.S. House next year were
Democrat John Lewis and Republican Ryan
Zinke, who would you vote for?
John Lewis……………………………………………… 32%
Ryan Zinke……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q20 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 2%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 12%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 19%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q21 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%

Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%

Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 27%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 38%

Q25 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Steve Daines’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 60%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Champ Edmunds?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brad Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matthew Rosendale?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Corey Stapleton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ryan Zinke?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q7 If the Republican candidates for U.S. Senate
were Steve Daines and Champ Edmunds, who
would you vote for?
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 66%
Champ Edmunds …………………………………….. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q8 If the Republican candidates for House were
Brad Johnson, Matthew Rosendale, Corey
Stapleton, and Ryan Zinke, who would you
vote for?
Brad Johnson………………………………………….. 20%
Matthew Rosendale …………………………………. 9%
Corey Stapleton ………………………………………. 32%
Ryan Zinke……………………………………………… 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Bohlinger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Walsh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q3 If the Democratic candidates for Senate were
Dirk Adams, John Bohlinger, and John Walsh,
who would you vote for?
Dirk Adams …………………………………………….. 3%
John Bohlinger………………………………………… 31%
John Walsh …………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 28%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 12%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 1%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%

Q6 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%

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