Polls

Cornyn at risk with Republicans next year

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Texas poll finds that John Cornyn is in grave danger of losing a primary next year if a serious campaign is run against him. Cornyn’s approval with Republican primary voters is only 46%, with 33% of voters disapproving of him. And 49% say they would like their candidate next year to be someone more conservative, compared to only 33% who say they support Cornyn.

Ted Cruz’s star in Texas Republican politics is making Cornyn’s life a lot harder. 62% of GOP voters say they have a higher opinion of Cruz than they do of Cornyn, and among voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative’ Cruz is seen more favorably by a 78/8 margin. If someone challenges Cornyn and is able to effectively present themselves as another Cruz they’ll have a very good chance in a Republican primary.

The good news for Cornyn is that he starts out with leads in head to head match ups with some of the names that have been bandied about the most as potential primary challengers. He leads David Barton 51/18 (who announced he wasn’t running this morning) and Louie Gohmert 40/31 in hypothetical contests.

Despite Cornyn’s weak overall approval numbers- 30% think he’s doing a good job to 42% who disapprove- he still has decent sized leads in hypothetical head to heads with two Democrats who are probably stronger than the party’s eventual nominee will be anyway. Cornyn leads Julian Castro 49/35 and Bill White 44/39. The two Democrats would be more competitive if Gohmert was the Republican standard bearer- he leads Castro 44/35 and White just 40/39. But basically the conclusion there is that even if 1) Democrats got their best candidate possible and 2) Cornyn got taken out in the primary by someone voters saw as an extremist, it’s still not a certainty Democrats would be able to make the race competitive.

“If there’s any intrigue in the Texas Senate race next year it looks like it’s going to come in the primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “GOP voters are open to replacing John Cornyn, it’s just a question of whether there will be a candidate strong enough to pull it off.”

PPP surveyed 500 Texas voters and an oversample of 388 Republican primary voters from November 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 4.4% and for the Republican survey it’s +/-5.0%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Cornyn’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .33%
Not sure …………….. .20%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Louie Gohmert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q3 If the Republican candidates for Senate next
year were David Barton and John Cornyn, who
would you vote for?
David Barton…………………………………………… 18%
John Cornyn …………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q4 If the Republican candidates for Senate next
year were Louie Gohmert and John Cornyn,
who would you vote for?
Louie Gohmert ………………………………………… 31%
John Cornyn …………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q5 If the Republican candidates for Senate next
year were Rick Perry and John Cornyn, who
would you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 46%
John Cornyn …………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Senate next year to
be John Cornyn or someone more
conservative than him?
John Cornyn …………………………………………… 33%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q7 Do you have a higher opinion of John Cornyn
or Ted Cruz?
John Cornyn …………………………………………… 23%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 44%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q10 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 35%

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Cornyn’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .30%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .27%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Louie Gohmert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Julian Castro?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill White?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican John Cornyn and Democrat Julian
Castro, who would you vote for?
John Cornyn …………………………………………… 49%
Julian Castro…………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Louie Gohmert and Democrat
Julian Castro, who would you vote for?
Louie Gohmert ………………………………………… 44%
Julian Castro…………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican John Cornyn and Democrat Bill
White, who would you vote for?
John Cornyn …………………………………………… 44%
Bill White………………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Louie Gohmert and Democrat Bill
White, who would you vote for?
Louie Gohmert ………………………………………… 40%
Bill White………………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q10 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%

Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 19%
White …………………………………………………….. 63%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

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