Polls

Chilton, Foushee lead pack to replace Kinnaird

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Mark Chilton and
Valerie Foushee are the top choices of voters in Chatham and Orange Counties to
replace Ellie Kinnaird in the State Senate, PPP’s newest survey finds. 36% of
voters say Chilton would be one of their top two choices, and 28% rank Foushee
in their top two. There’s little support for any of the remaining candidates-
14% put Alice Bordsen in their top two, Heidi Chapman has 7%, Amy Tiemann 5%,
Jim Porto 2%, and M. Lynette Hartsell 1%.

Chilton and Foushee are also the only people who have put their names in the
mix that a majority of voters in the district are familiar with. They are both
quite popular among voters familiar with them and hold nearly identical
favorability ratings- Chilton’s at 40/14 and Foushee’s at 40/13. The rest of
the applicants are basically unknown to the folks they hope to represent-
Bordsen has 24% name recognition, Tiemann 19%, Porto 18%, Chapman 17%, and Hartsell
13%.

Chilton comes out in first because of strong support in Carrboro (36/15 over
Foushee), Chapel Hill (31/15), and Chatham County (21% to 7% for Bordsen with
Foushee at 6%.) Foushee does best in unincorporated Orange County (33% to 15%
for Bordsen with Chilton at 13%) and Hillsborough (24% to 13% for Chapman with
Chilton at 12%).

One thing that may have Chilton polling well for this vacancy is his
decision to get arrested as part of the ‘Moral Monday’ protests. 75% of voters
in the district approve of local elected officials who got arrested as part of
that movement compared to only 18% who take issue with their decisions.

Whoever gets the appointment will have a hard time filling Kinnaird’s shoes
in voters’ eyes. She leaves office with a 72% approval rating and only 14% of
voters disapproving of the work she did in the Senate.

“Ellie Kinnaird has a higher approval than any politician we’ve tested
anywhere in the country this year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “Voters are very happy with the work she did over the last 17
years in the NC Senate.”

PPP surveyed 484 SD
23 voters between August 26-28, 2013. The margin of error was +/- 4.5%. This
poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization.
PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the work Ellie
Kinnaird has done during her time in the North
Carolina Senate?
Approve …………………………………………………. 72%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alice Bordsen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heidi Chapman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Chilton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Valerie Foushee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of M. Lynette Hartsell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 87%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Porto?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Amy Tiemann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%

Q9 Who would be your top choice to replace Ellie
Kinnaird in the North Carolina Senate: Alice
Bordsen, Heidi Chapman, Mark Chilton, Valerie
Foushee, M. Lynette Hartsell, Jim Porto, or
Amy Tiemann?
Alice Bordsen………………………………………….. 9%
Heidi Chapman ……………………………………….. 4%
Mark Chilton……………………………………………. 23%
Valerie Foushee………………………………………. 16%
M. Lynette Hartsell…………………………………… 0%
Jim Porto………………………………………………… 1%
Amy Tiemann………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 44%

Q10 Working from the same list of choices, who
would be your second choice to replace Ellie
Kinnaird in the North Carolina Senate?
Alice Bordsen………………………………………….. 5%
Heidi Chapman ……………………………………….. 3%
Mark Chilton……………………………………………. 13%
Valerie Foushee………………………………………. 12%
M. Lynette Hartsell…………………………………… 1%
Jim Porto………………………………………………… 1%
Amy Tiemann………………………………………….. 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 63%

Q11 Do you think the selection committee should
choose Ellie Kinnaird’s preferred candidate to
replace her in the North Carolina Senate, or
not?
Think it should…………………………………………. 45%
Think it should not……………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q12 Do you think it’s necessary for Ellie Kinnaird’s
replacement to be a woman, or not?
Think it is………………………………………………… 19%
Don’t think it is ………………………………………… 68%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q13 Which of the following best describes your
attitude toward the local deer population: there
are too many deer, there are not enough deer,
or the number of deer is just right?
Too many ……………………………………………….. 65%
Not enough …………………………………………….. 3%
About the right amount……………………………… 27%
No opinion………………………………………………. 5%

Q14 Would you support or oppose an organized
effort to reduce the deer population in your
area?
Support ………………………………………………….. 56%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q15 Would you support or oppose a Target in
southern Orange County?
Support ………………………………………………….. 48%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q16 Would you support or oppose an Olive Garden
in Carrboro?
Support ………………………………………………….. 44%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q17 Do you approve or disapprove of the decisions
of local elected officials who chose to get
arrested as part of the Moral Monday protests?
Approve …………………………………………………. 75%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 33%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 8%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 7%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 68%
Republican……………………………………………… 11%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%

Q21 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q23 Do you live in Chatham County or Orange
County?
Chatham………………………………………………… 33%
Orange…………………………………………………… 67%

Q24 (Asked only of Orange County residents:)
Which of the following best describes where
you live in Orange County: Carrboro, Chapel
Hill, Hillsborough, or the rest of the county?
Carrboro…………………………………………………. 16%
Chapel Hill ……………………………………………… 44%
Hillsborough……………………………………………. 17%
The rest of the county ………………………………. 23%

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