Polls

South Carolina special election looks like a toss-up

| Tom Jensen


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Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s first look at the special election in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional
District finds a toss up race. Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch leads
Republican Mark Sanford 47-45 and ties Curtis Bostic at 43.

This is a Republican leaning district and Barack Obama’s approval rating in
it is only 41% with 57% of voters disapproving of him. But Democrats are far
more unified than the Republicans are. Busch is winning 87-89% of the
Democratic vote while Sanford (76%) and Busch (72%) are both earning less than
80% of the GOP vote. Busch is also up by 16-18 points with independent voters.

Sanford remains a strong favorite for the Republican nomination heading into
next week’s runoff. He leads Bostic 53/40. The horse race numbers closely
mirror his favorability with GOP voters- 55% see him positively to 40% with a
negative opinion.

Focusing in on the potential race between Busch and Sanford it’s surprisingly
close for one simple reason- voters like Busch and they continue to strongly
dislike Sanford. 45% of voters see Busch favorably to only 31% with a negative
opinion. On the other hand Sanford is still stuck with a 34% favorability
rating and 58% of voters seeing him in a negative light.

Stephen Colbert’s favorability rating of 36% in the district is higher than
Sanford’s 34%, and only 27% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him. But
the really effective surrogate in the district would be Jenny Sanford, who has
a 55/18 favorability rating and is seen positively by majorities of Republicans
(57/15), independents (54/16), and Democrats (53/24) alike.

“The South Carolina special looks like a toss up,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question is how much Republicans
will unify around their nominee after the runoff next week.”

PPP surveyed 1,175
likely voters, including an oversample of 648 likely Republican runoff voters, from
March 22nd to 24th. The margin of error for the overall survey is
+/-2.9%, and +/-3.9% for the GOP portion. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Colbert Busch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Curtis Bostic?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Sanford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q5 If the candidates in the special election for
Congress were Democrat Elizabeth Colbert
Busch and Republican Curtis Bostic, who
would you vote for?
Elizabeth Colbert Busch……………………………. 43%
Curtis Bostic……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q6 If the candidates in the special election for
Congress were Democrat Elizabeth Colbert
Busch and Republican Mark Sanford, who
would you vote for?
Elizabeth Colbert Busch……………………………. 47%
Mark Sanford ………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Stephen Colbert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jenny Sanford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Nikki Haley’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .41%
Disapprove…………. .45%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Lindsey Graham’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .40%
Disapprove…………. .44%
Not sure …………….. .16%

Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tim
Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .53%
Disapprove…………. .26%
Not sure …………….. .21%

Q12 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 56%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If you are
30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you
are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Curtis Bostic?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Sanford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q3 The candidates in the Republican runoff for
Congress are Curtis Bostic and Mark Sanford.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Curtis Bostic……………………………………………. 40%
Mark Sanford ………………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 42%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 77%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%

Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 40%

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