Polls

Levin would have been favorite for re-election

| Tom Jensen


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Raleigh, N.C. –

When we did our Michigan poll last weekend obviously we didn’t know Carl Levin
was going to announce his retirement this week, so we didn’t test any other
potential Democratic candidates. Our poll numbers on him do give a prism into
the comparative strength of some of the possible Republican candidates though.
The one who came the closest to Levin was Candice Miller, although she still
trailed him 46/35. She has good statewide favorability numbers with 33% of
voters rating her favorably to 25% with an unfavorable opinion.

No one else came within 15 points of Levin. Justin Amash has a 9/20
favorability rating and trailed Levin 49/34. Mike Rogers has a 16/19
favorability rating and trailed Levin 49/33. Bill Schuette has a 20/25
favorability rating and trailed Levin 51/32. And Roger Kahn had a 5/15
favorability rating and trailed Levin 50/30.

One other Republican who we didn’t test on this poll but could potentially
be a good candidate is former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. In December
2010 we found she had a 36/21 favorability rating and trailed Debbie Stabenow
by only 4 points in a hypothetical contest.

“Carl Levin would have been an overwhelming favorite for reelection,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It looks as though Candice
Miller and Terri Lynn Land might be some of the stronger potential Republican
candidates.”

By a 45/35 margin voters think the state should keep the current system of
all electoral votes going to the statewide winner rather than changing to an
allocation by Congressional District model. 22% of Republicans think the state
should keep winner take all, while only 12% of Democrats support switching to a
by district model.

Michigan voters support stricter gun laws in general by a 52/39 margin, and
on the specific issue of an assault weapons ban they’re supportive by a 54/37
margin. There is near universal support among Democrats for the assault weapons
ban, and even 36% of Republicans support it. The NRA has a 38/45 favorability
rating in the state.

PPP surveyed 702
Michigan voters from March 2nd to 4th. The margin of error is +/-3.7%. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Justin Amash?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roger Kahn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Candice Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Rogers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Schuette?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Carl Levin and Republican Justin
Amash, who would you vote for?
Carl Levin……………………………………………….. 49%
Justin Amash ………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Carl Levin and Republican Roger
Kahn, who would you vote for?
Carl Levin……………………………………………….. 50%
Roger Kahn…………………………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q10 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Carl Levin and Republican Candice
Miller, who would you vote for?
Carl Levin……………………………………………….. 46%
Candice Miller …………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Carl Levin and Republican Mike
Rogers, who would you vote for?
Carl Levin……………………………………………….. 49%
Mike Rogers……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Carl Levin and Republican Bill
Schuette, who would you vote for?
Carl Levin……………………………………………….. 51%
Bill Schuette……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q13 Do you think all of Michigan’s electoral votes
should go to the presidential candidate who
wins the state, or do you think one should be
given to the winner of each congressional
district?
All of Michigan’s electoral votes should go to
the candidate who wins the state………………..45%
One vote should be given to the winner of
each congressional district…………………………35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q15 Would you support or oppose banning assault
weapons?
Support ………………………………………………….. 54%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q16 Would you support or oppose Congress
passing stricter gun laws?
Support ………………………………………………….. 52%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the National Rifle Association?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gerald Ford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Nugent?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q20 Do you consider yourself to be more of a
Michigan or Michigan State fan?
Michigan ………………………………………………… 39%
Michigan State ………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Webber?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%

Q22 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Fab Five as a whole?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q23 Do you consider yourself to be a Detroit Tigers
fan, or not?
Are a Tigers fan ………………………………………. 68%
Are not …………………………………………………… 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q24 (Q24-25 asked only of Tigers fans) Do you
think Jack Morris should be in the Hall of
Fame, or not?
He should be in the Hall……………………………. 86%
He should not………………………………………….. 14%

Q25 Do you think Alan Trammell should be in the
Hall of Fame, or not?
He should be in the Hall……………………………. 88%
He should not………………………………………….. 12%

Q26 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q27 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 52%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q28 Which pizza chain is your favorite: Domino’s,
Little Caesar’s, Papa John’s, Pizza Hut, or
something else?
Domino’s………………………………………………… 8%
Little Caesar’s …………………………………………. 12%
Papa John’s ……………………………………………. 16%
Pizza Hut………………………………………………… 19%
Something else ……………………………………….. 41%
Don’t like any of them ………………………………. 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%

Q29 Do you think the trees in Michigan are too tall,
too short, or just the right height?
Too tall …………………………………………………… 5%
Too short………………………………………………… 7%
Just the right height …………………………………. 72%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q30 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q31 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q32 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q33 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 38%

Q34 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q35 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

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