Montana Senate race looks competitive

Raleigh, N.C. – With potential threats in the 2014 Democratic primary and general election, Senator Max Baucus could have a difficult but not impossible road to re-election next year, according to PPP’s latest Montana poll.

If former Gov. Brian Schweitzer decides to run for the Senate seat, he leads against Baucus 54% to 35% with Democratic primary voters. That support holds with moderate and liberal primary voters, and it represents a 15-point increase since PPP’s last poll on this match-up in September. Schweitzer’s +77 favorability rating (86/9) with Montana Democrats is also 19 points higher than Baucus’ +58 job approval rating (76/18).

Baucus also trails two possible Republican challengers by 5 points—he’s down 44/49 against Steve Daines and 42/47 against Marc Racicot. Baucus holds leads against Tim Fox (46/43), Corey Stapleton (45/38) and Champ Edmunds (47/37), but these three potential GOP contenders all have name recognition below 50%.

General election voters narrowly disapprove of Baucus’ job performance 48% to 45%. 56% of voters have a favorable view of Schweitzer while 37% have an unfavorable opinion.  Schweitzer’s popularity extends across party lines—83% of Democrats, 20% of Republicans and 40% of independents approve of Baucus to 93% of Democrats, 26% of Republicans and 57% of independents who have a favorable view of Schweitzer.

Schweitzer also performs better against his potential Republican opponents. He trails Racicot by just 1 point (45/46) and leads the other four GOP candidates by 3 to 15 points.  Nancy Keenan, the former NARAL president, leads Edmunds by 5 points (41/36) and is tied with Stapleton at 40%, but she trails the other three candidates by 5 to 12 points.

“The Montana Senate race has the potential to be competitive,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Republicans might need a stronger candidate than Corey Stapleton or Champ Edmunds though.”

PPP surveyed 1,011 Montana voters and 371 usual Democratic primary voters from February 15^th to 17^th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.1% and +/-5.1% for the Democratic portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus' job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Steve Daines' job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 35%
Disapprove...................................................... 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 35%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Champ Edmunds?
Favorable........................................................ 4%
Unfavorable .................................................... 16%
Not sure .......................................................... 80%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Fox?
Favorable........................................................ 23%
Unfavorable .................................................... 23%
Not sure .......................................................... 54%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nancy Keenan?
Favorable........................................................ 38%
Unfavorable .................................................... 26%
Not sure .......................................................... 36%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marc Racicot?
Favorable........................................................ 41%
Unfavorable .................................................... 32%
Not sure .......................................................... 27%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Corey Stapleton?
Favorable........................................................ 15%
Unfavorable .................................................... 19%
Not sure .......................................................... 66%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable........................................................ 56%
Unfavorable .................................................... 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Max Baucus and Republican Steve Daines,
who would you vote for?
Max Baucus .................................................... 44%
Steve Daines .................................................. 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q10 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Max Baucus and Republican Champ
Edmunds, who would you vote for?
Max Baucus .................................................... 47%
Champ Edmunds ............................................ 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q11 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Max Baucus and Republican Tim Fox, who
would you vote for?
Max Baucus .................................................... 46%
Tim Fox........................................................... 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q12 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Max Baucus and Republican Marc Racicot,
who would you vote for?
Max Baucus .................................................... 42%
Marc Racicot................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q13 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Max Baucus and Republican Corey Stapleton,
who would you vote for?
Max Baucus .................................................... 45%
Corey Stapleton .............................................. 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q14 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Nancy Keenan and Republican Steve Daines,
who would you vote for?
Nancy Keenan ................................................ 39%
Steve Daines .................................................. 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q15 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Nancy Keenan and Republican Champ
Edmunds, who would you vote for?
Nancy Keenan ................................................ 41%
Champ Edmunds ............................................ 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Q16 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Nancy Keenan and Republican Tim Fox, who
would you vote for?
Nancy Keenan ................................................ 40%
Tim Fox........................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q17 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Nancy Keenan and Republican Marc Racicot,
who would you vote for?
Nancy Keenan ................................................ 38%
Marc Racicot................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q18 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Nancy Keenan and Republican Corey
Stapleton, who would you vote for?
Nancy Keenan ................................................ 40%
Corey Stapleton .............................................. 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 20%

Q19 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Brian Schweitzer and Republican Steve
Daines, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 48%
Steve Daines .................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q20 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Brian Schweitzer and Republican Champ
Edmunds, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 52%
Champ Edmunds ............................................ 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q21 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Brian Schweitzer and Republican Tim Fox, who
would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 49%
Tim Fox........................................................... 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q22 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Brian Schweitzer and Republican Marc
Racicot, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 45%
Marc Racicot................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q23 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Brian Schweitzer and Republican Corey
Stapleton, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 49%
Corey Stapleton .............................................. 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 10%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15%
Moderate......................................................... 28%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 25%
Very conservative ........................................... 21%

Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 51%
Man................................................................. 49%

Q26 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 27%
Republican...................................................... 35%
Independent/Other.......................................... 38%

Q27 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White .............................................................. 91%
Other............................................................... 9%

Q28 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 40%
46 to 65........................................................... 40%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus' job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 76%
Disapprove...................................................... 18%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable........................................................ 86%
Unfavorable .................................................... 9%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q3 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Max Baucus and Brian Schweitzer, who would
you vote for?
Max Baucus .................................................... 35%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 54%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 24%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 31%
Moderate......................................................... 36%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 8%
Very conservative ........................................... 1%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 60%
Man................................................................. 40%

Q6 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 36%
46 to 65........................................................... 36%
Older than 65.................................................. 28%