Hagan out in front of possible 2014 Republican opponents

Raleigh, N.C. – Kay Hagan leads nine possible Republican Senate candidates for the 2014 race by five to 15 points, according to PPP’s latest North Carolina poll.

Every hypothetical GOP challenger trails Hagan. She leads Patrick McHenry 45/40, Cherie Berry 46/38, Thom Tillis 46/38, Renee Ellmers 47/38, Virginia Foxx 48/38, George Holding 46/36, Phil Berger 49/38, Greg Brannon 48/35 and Terry Embler 48/33.

39% of voters approve of Hagan’s job performance while 38% disapprove and 23% are not sure. 46% of moderates approve of Hagan’s performance to 26% who disapprove. The big shift for Hagan since January is that she is consolidating Democratic support but disapproval from independent voters has increased. 64% of Democrats now approve of Hagan’s job performance compared to only 49% in January. But independents are split 28% approving to 48% disapproving compared to 31% to 34% a month ago.

“Kay Hagan continues to lead all her potential Republican opponents,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Her approval numbers aren’t out of this world, but the pool of GOP candidates is weak.”

PPP included several new candidates in this month’s poll of Republican primary voters. Cherie Berry leads with 18% support, followed by 16% for Foxx, 10% for Ellmers and McHenry, 7% for Berger, 5% for Brannon, 3% for Holding and Tillis and 1% for Embler. The field is still wide open with 27% supporting someone else or not sure.

Berry is the only Republican with 50% name recognition, although Foxx is right behind her with 49%. Berry’s support is strongest with liberal and moderate GOP voters whereas Foxx’s base of support lies with conservative Republicans. Berry is the only Republican with a net positive favorability rating with general election voters (+12, 31/19).

Potential bad news for Pat McCrory: 77% of Republican primary voters oppose his recent decision to give 8% raises to his Cabinet members, and just 14% support the move.

PPP surveyed 600 North Carolina voters and 518 usual Republican primary voters from February 7^th to 10^th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4% and +/-4.3% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan's job performance?
Approve ................. .39%
Disapprove............. .38%
Not sure ................. .23%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable........................................................ 9%
Unfavorable .................................................... 29%
Not sure .......................................................... 62%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cherie Berry?
Favorable........................................................ 31%
Unfavorable .................................................... 19%
Not sure .......................................................... 50%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable........................................................ 5%
Unfavorable .................................................... 19%
Not sure .......................................................... 76%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable........................................................ 16%
Unfavorable .................................................... 25%
Not sure .......................................................... 58%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry Embler?
Favorable........................................................ 7%
Unfavorable .................................................... 18%
Not sure .......................................................... 75%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable........................................................ 20%
Unfavorable .................................................... 29%
Not sure .......................................................... 51%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Holding?
Favorable........................................................ 9%
Unfavorable .................................................... 22%
Not sure .......................................................... 68%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick McHenry?
Favorable........................................................ 18%
Unfavorable .................................................... 24%
Not sure .......................................................... 58%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable........................................................ 14%
Unfavorable .................................................... 25%
Not sure .......................................................... 61%

Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Phil
Berger, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan...................................................... 49%
Phil Berger ...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Cherie
Berry, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan...................................................... 46%
Cherie Berry.................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg
Brannon, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan...................................................... 48%
Greg Brannon ................................................. 35%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%

Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Renee
Ellmers, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan...................................................... 47%
Renee Ellmers ................................................ 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Terry
Embler, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan...................................................... 48%
Terry Embler ................................................... 33%
Not sure .......................................................... 20%

Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Virginia
Foxx, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan...................................................... 48%
Virginia Foxx ................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican George
Holding, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan...................................................... 46%
George Holding............................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%

Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Patrick
McHenry, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan...................................................... 45%
Patrick McHenry ............................................. 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q19 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan...................................................... 46%
Thom Tillis ...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 11%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15%
Moderate......................................................... 29%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 22%
Very conservative ........................................... 22%

Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 54%
Man................................................................. 46%

Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 44%
Republican...................................................... 33%
Independent/Other.......................................... 23%

Q23 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White .............................................................. 75%
African-American ............................................ 20%
Other............................................................... 6%

Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 12%
30 to 45........................................................... 26%
46 to 65........................................................... 41%
Older than 65.................................................. 21%

Q25 Area Code
252.................................................................. 12%
336.................................................................. 18%
704.................................................................. 18%
828.................................................................. 14%
910.................................................................. 16%
919.................................................................. 21%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable........................................................ 11%
Unfavorable .................................................... 24%
Not sure .......................................................... 65%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cherie Berry?
Favorable........................................................ 32%
Unfavorable .................................................... 19%
Not sure .......................................................... 48%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable........................................................ 4%
Unfavorable .................................................... 16%
Not sure .......................................................... 79%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable........................................................ 20%
Unfavorable .................................................... 17%
Not sure .......................................................... 63%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry Embler?
Favorable........................................................ 4%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
Not sure .......................................................... 81%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable........................................................ 27%
Unfavorable .................................................... 21%
Not sure .......................................................... 52%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Holding?
Favorable........................................................ 10%
Unfavorable .................................................... 16%
Not sure .......................................................... 74%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick McHenry?
Favorable........................................................ 23%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
Not sure .......................................................... 62%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable........................................................ 15%
Unfavorable .................................................... 17%
Not sure .......................................................... 68%

Q10 Given the choices of Phil Berger, Cherie Berry,
Greg Brannon, Renee Ellmers, Terry Embler,
Virginia Foxx, George Holding, Patrick
McHenry, and Thom Tillis, who would you most
like to see as the Republican candidate for
Senate in 2014?
Phil Berger ............. . 7%
Cherie Berry........... .18%
Greg Brannon ........ . 5%
Renee Ellmers ....... .10%
Terry Embler .......... . 1%
Virginia Foxx .......... .16%
George Holding...... . 3%
Patrick McHenry .... .10%
Thom Tillis ............. . 3%
Someone else/Not
sure.........................27%

Q11 Do you support or oppose Pat McCrory giving
members of his Cabinet average raises of 8%?
Support .................. .14%
Oppose .................. .77%
Not sure ................. . 9%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 2%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 5%
Moderate......................................................... 17%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 33%
Very conservative ........................................... 43%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 50%
Man................................................................. 50%

Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1.If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 30%
46 to 65........................................................... 38%
Older than 65.................................................. 32%

Q15 Area Code
252.................................................................. 9%
336.................................................................. 25%
704.................................................................. 20%
828.................................................................. 15%
910.................................................................. 14%
919.................................................................. 17%

Comments

[bran]

I find it very hard to believe that it will be only 33# Republican. And 44% Democratic? No way. First off, during last years presidential race, there were more Republicans than Democraats, and Mitt Romney won the state. Fast forward two years and you have a much more conserative midterm electoratte. Especially in a state like North Carolina. I think your proportion is way off. In teh 2012 electorate there, the proportion was 42% Republican, and 34% Democratic with the rest moderates and independents. So I would assume that the 2014 electorate would be even more conservative.