Polls

Unpopular LePage in danger for 2014 re-election

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Republican Paul LePage is in danger of losing his bid for re-election unless the 2014 Maine governor’s contest turns out to be the same sort of three-way race that paved the way for LePage’s victory in 2010.

PPP’s latest poll finds LePage ahead by 4 to 7 points in every potential three-way contest while losing every head-to-head contest by 8 to 21 points. If LePage and independent Eliot Cutler were the only two candidates, Cutler would lead LePage 49% to 41%. But in every three-way scenario, Cutler’s strength as an independent candidate gives LePage the lead over their possible Democratic opponents.

LePage’s job approval rating is significantly underwater at -16, with 39% approving and 55% disapproving. 18% of Republicans and 54% of independents disapprove of the job that LePage is doing as governor.

“Paul LePage’s chances at reelection appear contingent on there being both a strong Democratic candidate and a strong independent candidate on the ballot next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He would have very little chance in a race against just one serious opponent.”

John Baldacci is the favorite of Democratic primary voters with 28% support, followed by Chellie Pingree (21%), Mike Michaud (19%), Emily Cain (6%), Janet Mills (4%), Ethan Strimling (3%) and Jeremy Fischer (2%). Steve Woods picked up 0% support, while 16% of respondents support someone else or are undecided. Baldacci and Pingree are ahead because of their popularity among liberal Democrats.

With his +35 approval rating, Congressman Michaud would be the most competitive Democrat against LePage in a general election, primarily because of his crossover appeal to Republicans and independents. Michaud trails LePage by only 4 points (30/34) in a three-way contest, which is within the poll’s margin of error, and he beats LePage by 21 points in a two-way match-up (36/57).

PPP surveyed 1,268 Maine voters and 510 usual Democratic primary voters from January 18th to 20th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-2.8% and +/-4.4% for the Democratic portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Baldacci?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eliot Cutler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Michaud?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Janet Mills?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chellie Pingree?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ethan Strimling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul
LePage, and Democrat John Baldacci, who
would you vote for?
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 29%
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 36%
John Baldacci …………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul
LePage, and Democrat Mike Michaud, who
would you vote for?
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 26%
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 34%
Mike Michaud………………………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul
LePage, and Democrat Janet Mills, who would
you vote for?
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 32%
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 37%
Janet Mills………………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul
LePage, and Democrat Chellie Pingree, who
would you vote for?
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 23%
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 37%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul
LePage, and Democrat Ethan Strimling, who
would you vote for?
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 32%
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 37%
Ethan Strimling ……………………………………….. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
just Republican Paul LePage and independent
Eliot Cutler, who would you vote for?
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 41%
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
just Republican Paul LePage and Democrat
John Baldacci, who would you vote for?
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 38%
John Baldacci …………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
just Republican Paul LePage and Democrat
Mike Michaud, who would you vote for?
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 36%
Mike Michaud………………………………………….. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year were
just Republican Paul LePage and Democrat
Chellie Pingree, who would you vote for?
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 40%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q17 (Asked only of 510 Democratic primary voters:)
Given the choices of John Baldacci, Emily
Cain, Jeremy Fischer, Mike Michaud, Janet
Mills, Chellie Pingree, Ethan Strimling, and
Steve Woods, who would you most like to see
as the Democratic candidate for Governor of
Maine next year?
John Baldacci …………………………………………. 28%
Emily Cain………………………………………………. 6%
Jeremy Fischer ……………………………………….. 2%
Mike Michaud………………………………………….. 19%
Janet Mills………………………………………………. 4%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 21%
Ethan Strimling ……………………………………….. 3%
Steve Woods ………………………………………….. 0%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 16%

Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%

Q21 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q22 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 39%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

Related Polls