Gay marriage popular but Chafee not

Raleigh, N.C. – Lincoln Chafee's prospects for a second term as Governor of Rhode Island are looking pretty dim. Only 33% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 59% who disapprove. That ties him for the second most unpopular Governor in the country in our polling- the only person with worse numbers is Pat Quinn of Illinois.

Chafee does poorly in numerous scenarios we tested for next year's Gubernatorial race:

-In four different scenarios testing four candidates- either Gina Raimondo or Angel Taveras on the Democratic side, either Brendan Doherty or Allan Fung on the Republican side, Chafee running as an independent, and Moderate Party candidate Ken Block- Chafee finishes third in every single one, running behind both the Democratic and Republican candidates.

-In two scenarios testing Chafee as the Democratic candidate he finishes second, running 4 points behind the Republican candidates we tested, Brendan Doherty and Allan Fung.

-It would be difficult for Chafee to become the Democratic candidate anyway though. 35% of Democratic primary voters want Gina Raimondo to be their candidate next year to just 22% for Chafee, 19% for Angel Taveras, and 11% for Ernie Almonte.

Overall 57% of voters don't want Chafee to seek reelection next year. 20% want him to run as an independent and 18% think he should run for election again as a Democrat.

“Lincoln Chafee is really in a hole,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He managed to win in 2010 because of a splintered field but even that wouldn’t pull him across the finish line at this point.”

The early front runner in next year's race is Raimondo. In addition to leading the Democratic primary field, she also leads every general election scenario we tested. She leads Brendan Doherty by 4 points and Allan Fung by 12 points in four way contests with Chafee in the picture as an independent. When you take Chafee out of the picture Raimondo leads Doherty by 12 points and Fung by 19 points in three way contests. 57% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Raimondo, and her popularity holds true across party lines. Majorities of independents (63/19), Democrats (53/23), and Republicans (52/23) all have a positive opinion of her.

Angel Taveras has an even better statewide favorability rating than Raimondo, with 63% of voters seeing him positively to 21% with an unfavorable opinion. But Taveras' general election numbers for Governor aren't as strong as Raimondo's. In four way contests he trails Doherty by 5 points and ties Fung. In three way contests without Chafee he leads Doherty by 4 and Fung by 6.

Depending on how the field plays out Republicans should have a chance to be competitive in this race. Both Fung (55/14) and Doherty (45/32) have pretty strong statewide favorability numbers. There are a lot of states that are a lot more red than Rhode Island where Republicans don't have candidates that popular they can run for statewide office.

The other main finding on our Rhode Island poll is that voters in the state strongly support legalizing gay marriage- 57% support it to 36% who are opposed.  When we polled the state on this issue in February 2011 there was 50/41 support for it, and the 12 point increase in the margin in favor of same sex marriage reflects the national movement on this issue over the last few years. Among Rhode Islanders under the age of 45 there's 65/31 support on the issue. Looking more broadly at legal rights for same sex couples 85% of voters, including 75% of Republicans, at least support civil unions.

“If public opinion has anything to do with it Rhode Island will legalize gay marriage this year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters in the state strongly favor it and support is increasing by the year.”

PPP surveyed 614 Rhode Island voters including 320 Democratic primary voters from January 28^th to 30th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.0% and +/-5.5% for the Democratic portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Lincoln Chafee's job performance?
Approve ................. .33%
Disapprove............. .59%
Not sure ................. . 8%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Block?
Favorable........................................................ 21%
Unfavorable .................................................... 24%
Not sure .......................................................... 54%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brendan Doherty?
Favorable........................................................ 45%
Unfavorable .................................................... 32%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Allan Fung?
Favorable........................................................ 55%
Unfavorable .................................................... 14%
Not sure .......................................................... 31%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gina Raimondo?
Favorable........................................................ 57%
Unfavorable .................................................... 21%
Not sure .......................................................... 22%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Angel Taveras?
Favorable........................................................ 63%
Unfavorable .................................................... 21%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Moderate Party candidate Ken Block,
independent Lincoln Chafee, Republican
Brendan Doherty, and Democrat Gina
Raimondo, who would you vote for?
Ken Block........................................................ 8%
Lincoln Chafee................................................ 22%
Brendan Doherty............................................. 28%
Gina Raimondo............................................... 32%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Moderate Party candidate Ken Block,
independent Lincoln Chafee, Republican
Brendan Doherty, and Democrat Angel
Taveras, who would you vote for?
Ken Block........................................................ 10%
Lincoln Chafee................................................ 23%
Brendan Doherty............................................. 31%
Angel Taveras................................................. 26%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Moderate Party candidate Ken Block,
independent Lincoln Chafee, Republican Allan
Fung, and Democrat Gina Raimondo, who
would you vote for?
Ken Block........................................................ 10%
Lincoln Chafee................................................ 21%
Allan Fung....................................................... 23%
Gina Raimondo............................................... 35%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Moderate Party candidate Ken Block,
independent Lincoln Chafee, Republican Allan
Fung, and Democrat Angel Taveras, who would
you vote for?
Ken Block........................................................ 13%
Lincoln Chafee................................................ 20%
Allan Fung....................................................... 26%
Angel Taveras................................................. 26%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Moderate Party candidate Ken Block, Lincoln
Chafee, running as a Democrat, and
Republican Brendan Doherty, who would you
vote for?
Ken Block........................................................ 13%
Lincoln Chafee................................................ 35%
Brendan Doherty............................................. 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Moderate Party candidate Ken Block, Lincoln
Chafee, running as a Democrat, and
Republican Allan Fung, who would you vote
for?
Ken Block........................................................ 16%
Lincoln Chafee................................................ 32%
Allan Fung....................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q13 Next year, would you like Lincoln Chafee to run
for Governor as a Democrat or an
independent, or would you not like him to run at
all?
As a Democrat ................................................ 18%
As an independent.......................................... 20%
Would not like him to run at all........................ 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Moderate Party candidate Ken Block,
Democrat Gina Raimondo, and Republican
Brendan Doherty, who would you vote for?
Ken Block........................................................ 10%
Gina Raimondo............................................... 44%
Brendan Doherty............................................. 32%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Moderate Party candidate Ken Block,
Democrat Gina Raimondo, and Republican
Allan Fung, who would you vote for?
Ken Block........................................................ 12%
Gina Raimondo............................................... 46%
Allan Fung....................................................... 27%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Moderate Party candidate Ken Block,
Democrat Angel Taveras, and Republican
Brendan Doherty, who would you vote for?
Ken Block........................................................ 13%
Angel Taveras................................................. 39%
Brendan Doherty............................................. 35%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q17 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Moderate Party candidate Ken Block,
Democrat Angel Taveras, and Republican Allan
Fung, who would you vote for?
Ken Block........................................................ 15%
Angel Taveras................................................. 37%
Allan Fung....................................................... 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%

Q18 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Rhode Island, or not?
It should .......................................................... 57%
It should not .................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q19 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple's relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ..............................................................54%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry .......................................31%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple's relationship .......................................13%
Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q20 (Q20-22 asked only of 320 Democratic primary
voters) Given the choices of Ernie Almonte,
Lincoln Chafee, Gina Raimondo, and Angel
Taveras, who would you most like to see as the
Democratic candidate for Governor next year?
Ernie Almonte ................................................. 11%
Lincoln Chafee................................................ 22%
Gina Raimondo............................................... 35%
Angel Taveras................................................. 19%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 12%

Q21 If Lincoln Chafee wasn’t an option, who would
you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for Governor next year, given the
choices of Ernie Almonte, Gina Raimondo, and
Angel Taveras?
Ernie Almonte ................................................. 9%
Gina Raimondo............................................... 44%
Angel Taveras................................................. 35%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 13%

Q22 If the candidates for Secretary of State next
year were Guilluame De Ramel and Ed
Pacheco, who would you vote for?
Guillaume De Ramel....................................... 8%
Ed Pacheco .................................................... 15%
Not sure .......................................................... 77%

Q23 Rhode Islanders will vote next year on whether
to hold a constitutional convention. Do you
support or oppose holding a constitutional
convention?
Support ........................................................... 40%
Oppose ........................................................... 25%
Not sure .......................................................... 35%

Q24 Do you support or oppose the pension law that
was passed in 2011?
Support ........................................................... 46%
Oppose ........................................................... 20%
Not sure .......................................................... 34%

Q25 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 17%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 23%
Moderate......................................................... 29%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 23%
Very conservative ........................................... 9%

Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 51%
Man................................................................. 49%

Q27 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 38%
Republican...................................................... 17%
Independent/Other.......................................... 45%

Q28 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White .............................................................. 89%
Other............................................................... 11%

Q29 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 35%
46 to 65........................................................... 47%
Older than 65.................................................. 18%