Polls

Collins strong for re-election

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest Maine poll finds that if Susan Collins is the Republican candidate
for Senate next year, she’ll get reelected. Collins is one of the most popular Senators
in the country, with 63% of voters approving of her to 24% who disapprove. She
accomplishes the incredibly rare feat in these times of having at least a 60%
approval across party lines- she’s at 66/24 with Republicans, 64/24 with
independents, and 60/25 with Democrats.

Collins would easily dispatch either of her state’s members of Congress in a
head to head match up. Despite Mike Michaud’s own stellar 58/23 favorability
rating, Collins would lead him 54/36 in a head to head match up. And Collins’ lead
over Chellie Pingree would be even more substantial at 58/33.

As Dick Lugar and Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle have learned in recent
years though, being a moderate Republican can give you trouble in a Senate
primary. Collins’ 66/24 approval spread with GOP voters is well below
Murkowski’s 77/13 standing at the beginning of 2010- she was defeated in the
primary 8 months later. And against a hypothetical ‘more conservative’ GOP
opponent in a primary, Collins leads only 49-46. Voters describing themselves
as ‘very conservative’ would like to replace her by a 75/22 margin. If the Tea
Party is looking for a primary target in 2014, Collins probably belongs at the
top of the list alongside Georgia’s Saxby Chambliss.

The GOP would be shooting itself in the foot if it did depose Collins
though. We looked at how 2012 nominee Charlie Summers would do as an
alternative to her and he would get crushed- he trails Michaud 57/32 and
Pingree 50/39 in hypothetical match ups. The GOP’s chances of holding onto one
of Maine’s Senate seats may die as soon as Collins exits the Senate.

“This seat looks pretty safe for the GOP if Susan Collins is its candidate
next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But if she’s
not- either through retirement or a primary challenge- it could be very hard
for the Republicans to hold on.”

PPP surveyed 1,268 Maine voters and 430 Republican
primary voters from January 18th to 20th. The margin of
error for the overall sample is +/-2.8% and +/-4.7% for the Republican portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Susan Collins’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 63%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Michaud?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chellie Pingree?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Summers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q5 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Mike
Michaud, who would you vote for?
Susan Collins………………………………………….. 54%
Mike Michaud………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Susan Collins and Democrat
Chellie Pingree, who would you vote for?
Susan Collins………………………………………….. 58%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Charlie Summers and Democrat
Mike Michaud, who would you vote for?
Charlie Summers …………………………………….. 32%
Mike Michaud………………………………………….. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Charlie Summers and Democrat
Chellie Pingree, who would you vote for?
Charlie Summers …………………………………….. 39%
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 39%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Susan Collins’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 65%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Summers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q3 If the Republican candidates for Senate next
year were Susan Collins and Charlie
Summers, who would you vote for?
Susan Collins………………………………………….. 58%
Charlie Summers …………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q4 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Senate next year to
be Susan Collins or someone more
conservative than her?
Susan Collins………………………………………….. 49%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 7%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%

Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 44%
Man……………………………………………………….. 56%

Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

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