Clinton could beat Bush and Rubio in Florida in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton could beat Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush on their home turf in a presidential contest, according to PPP’s latest poll.

In a hypothetical 2016 match-up, Clinton leads Rubio by 4 points, 50% to 46%, and she beats Bush by 5 points, 49% to 44%. Both of these modest leads are within the poll’s margin of error. The main reason Clinton leads both candidates is her strong appeal among moderates, who favor her 63% to 29% over Bush and 63% to 32% over Rubio.

Clinton’s +11 favorability rating (52/41) is actually lower than Rubio’s +13 job approval (49/36) and Bush’s +16 favorability rating (51/35). Despite their popularity at home, Florida voters don’t support Rubio or Bush running for president in the next election—they oppose the idea 53% to 31% for Bush and 49% to 38% for Rubio.

In a nine-way contest, Clinton is the favorite for a whopping 65% of Democratic primary voters, followed by Joe Biden (15%), Andrew Cuomo (4%), Elizabeth Warren (4%), Deval Patrick (1%) and Mark Warner (1%). 88% have a favorable opinion of Clinton. If Clinton and Biden decide not to run, Cuomo would lead the pack with 22% support, but 48% of Democrats are not sure or would support different candidates.

“Hillary Clinton would be a force to contend with in the 2016 presidential election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She would clear the Democratic primary field and be tough to beat in the general election.”

In a nine-way contest, 31% of Florida GOP primary voters would choose Rubio to run for president to 26% for Bush and 11% for Huckabee. Nobody else gets above single digits.

Florida voters approve of President Obama’s job performance 50% to 48% and of Ben Nelson’s job performance 43% to 40%. Minting a trillion-dollar coin to avoid the debt ceiling isn’t popular in Florida—54% of voters are opposed, with just 15% in support.

PPP surveyed 501 Florida voters, including an oversample of 401 usual Democratic primary voters and 436 Republican primary voters, from January 11^th to 13^th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.4%, +/-4.9% for the Democratic portion, and +/-4.7% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve ................. .43%
Disapprove............. .40%
Not sure ................. .17%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio's job performance?
Approve ................. .49%
Disapprove............. .36%
Not sure ................. .15%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable........................................................ 51%
Unfavorable .................................................... 35%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable........................................................ 52%
Unfavorable .................................................... 41%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q8 Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President
in 2016, or not?
He should........................................................ 32%
He should not.................................................. 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q9 Do you think Marco Rubio should run for
President in 2016, or not?
He should........................................................ 38%
He should not.................................................. 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q10 Would you support or oppose minting a trilliondollar
coin to avoid the debt ceiling?
Support ........................................................... 15%
Oppose ........................................................... 54%
Not sure .......................................................... 31%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 12%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 17%
Moderate......................................................... 33%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 21%
Very conservative ........................................... 18%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 53%
Man................................................................. 47%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 44%
Republican...................................................... 38%
Independent/Other.......................................... 18%

Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic.......................................................... 11%
White .............................................................. 68%
African-American ............................................ 15%
Other............................................................... 6%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 12%
30 to 45........................................................... 24%
46 to 65........................................................... 38%
Older than 65.................................................. 26%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Susana
Martinez, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio,
and Paul Ryan, who would you most like to see
as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush......................................................... 26%
Chris Christie .................................................. 7%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 11%
Bobby Jindal ................................................... 5%
Susana Martinez............................................. 2%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 5%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 2%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 31%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 5%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 5%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio's job performance?
Approve ................. .80%
Disapprove............. .12%
Not sure ................. . 8%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable........................................................ 78%
Unfavorable .................................................... 12%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 2%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 9%
Moderate......................................................... 19%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 36%
Very conservative ........................................... 35%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 48%
Man................................................................. 52%

Q6 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 26%
46 to 65........................................................... 46%
Older than 65.................................................. 28%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden........................................................ 15%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 65%
Andrew Cuomo ............................................... 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand ............................................ 0%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 0%
Deval Patrick................................................... 1%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 0%
Mark Warner ................................................... 1%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 4%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 11%

Q2 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ............................................... 22%
Kirsten Gillibrand ............................................ 3%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 4%
Deval Patrick................................................... 5%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 1%
Mark Warner ................................................... 2%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 15%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 48%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable........................................................ 88%
Unfavorable .................................................... 10%
Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 18%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 28%
Moderate......................................................... 39%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 11%
Very conservative ........................................... 3%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 65%
Man................................................................. 35%

Q6 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic.......................................................... 8%
White .............................................................. 71%
African-American ............................................ 17%
Other............................................................... 4%

Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 33%
46 to 65........................................................... 40%
Older than 65.................................................. 27%