Polls

McCaskill lead steady at 6 points

| Tom Jensen


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Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds little change from three
weeks ago. Claire McCaskill leads Todd Akin 46-40. The only shift is Libertarian
Jonathan Dine’s support dropping from 9% to 6% with those folks moving into the
undecided column.

There were a lot of reasons to think this race might shift back toward Todd
Akin as the furor over his controversial comments in August died down. But his
image has actually just continued to get worse as the election approaches. 31%
of voters now say they have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative
one. It was a 33/55 spread earlier this month.

McCaskill continues to be unpopular with 44% of voters approving of her to
51% who disapprove. Still that’s a significant improvement over the last couple
months. In late August we found her at a 40/55 spread.

“Instead of fixing up his image with Missouri voters in the final weeks of
the campaign Todd Akin’s just made it worse,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “That’s allowing Claire McCaskill to hold on to her 6
point lead.”

The race that has tightened a good bit over the last few weeks in Missouri
is the one for Governor. Jay Nixon still has a 51/40 lead over Dave Spence, but
that’s down 8 points from a 54/35 spread earlier in the month. The reason for
the shift is Republicans unifying around Spence as they become more familiar
with him. Still Nixon is ahead 54/35 with independents so the chances of his
actually losing appear minuscule.

Missouri was the closest state in the country in the Presidential race in
2008, but it’s not likely to keep that status this year. Mitt Romney leads by 6
points there, 52/46. His favorability is now 52/45, a 4 point net improvement
since before the first debate. Obama continues to be quite unpopular there with
only 44% of voters approving of him to 54% who disapprove.

PPP surveyed 582 likely
Missouri voters from October 19th to 21st. The margin of
error for the survey is +/-4.1%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .51%
Not sure …………….. . 5%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jonathan Dine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%

Q7 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Claire McCaskill, Republican Todd
Akin, and Libertarian Jonathan Dine. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 46%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 40%
Jonathan Dine…………………………………………. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 (Asked only to Dine supporters:) If you had to
choose between Democrat Claire McCaskill
and Republican Todd Akin, who would you vote
for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 23%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .34%
Not sure …………….. .18%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Spence?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q11 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Dave
Spence. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 51%
Dave Spence ………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q12 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor this
fall are Democrat Susan Montee and
Republican Peter Kinder. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Susan Montee…………………………………………. 43%
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q13 The candidates for Attorney General this fall
are Democrat Chris Koster and Republican Ed
Martin. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Chris Koster ……………………………………………. 48%
Ed Martin ……………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q14 Who do you think won the Presidential debate
on Tuesday night?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q15 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q16 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of Libya?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q17 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on women’s issues?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q18 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 41%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Roy
Blunt’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .35%
Disapprove…………. .34%
Not sure …………….. .31%

Q20 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 64%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 19%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 16%

Q21 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%

Q22 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q23 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%

Q24 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q25 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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