Polls

Walker faces fight of his life in Wisconsin recall election

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Wisconsin voters are split down the middle in terms of whether to recall Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 49%-49%, but a closer look at prospective matchups suggests that Walker is headed for the battle of his political life to survive a recall challenge. Walker’s approval rating sits at 47% approval and 52% disapproval.

With the exception of former Senator Russ Feingold, who would beat Walker 52-45, Walker either wins or loses to a slate of prospective challengers by +/- 3% points.  The kicker is that many of Walker’s prospective opponents are far less known than he is, suggesting his challengers may make up even more ground as the electorate gets to know them. Mayor of Milwaukee Tom Barrett is leading Walker 49-46, with a favorability rating of 41/33 and 27% of voters not sure about him. Kathleen Falk leads Walker 48-47, with a 31/42 favorability rating and 27% of voters not sure about her. Walker leads former Congressman David Obey, 47-45, but 43% of voters don’t know enough about Obey to register an opinion on his favorability one way or the other. Similarly, Walker leads Jon Erpenbach 47-44, but 59% aren’t sure about Erpenbach. The same is true of Peter Barca (Walker wins 48-46, but 57% don’t know Barca), Ron Kind (Kind wins 46-45 despite 57% of voters not sure about him), Doug LaFollette (Walker beats him 46-45 with 49% of voters not sure about him), and Kathleen Vinehout – Walker beats her 46-44 with a full 60% of voters not knowing enough about Vinehout to form a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her.

“These are the most encouraging numbers we’ve found for Democrats in Wisconsin related to the Walker recall since last August,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Walker’s numbers had been seeing some recovery, but now it appears they’ve turned back in the wrong direction. The big question now is whether Democrats can find a candidate to take advantage of Walker’s vulnerability.”

In the Democratic primary to decide who will face Walker, Tom Barrett takes 45% to Falk’s 18%, LaFollette’s 14%, Vinehout’s 6% and 17% undecided. In a Barrett-less field, Falk gets 41%, LaFollette 23%, Vinehout 13% and 22% undecided.

PPP surveyed 900 Wisconsin voters from February 23rd to 26th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.27%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 47%
Disapprove………… 52%
Not sure ……………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Barca?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Barrett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Erpenbach?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kathleen Falk?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Russ Feingold?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Kind?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Doug LaFollette?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Obey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kathleen Vinehout?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%

Q11 Would you support or oppose recalling Scott
Walker from office before his term is up?
Support ………………………………………………….. 49%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%

Q12 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Peter
Barca, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 48%
Peter Barca…………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q13 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Tom
Barrett, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 46%
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q14 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Jon
Erpenbach, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
Jon Erpenbach………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q15 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat
Kathleen Falk, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
Kathleen Falk………………………………………….. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q16 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Russ
Feingold, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 45%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%

Q17 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Ron
Kind, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 45%
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q18 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Doug
LaFollette, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 46%
Doug LaFollette ………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q19 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat David
Obey, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
David Obey …………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q20 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat
Kathleen Vinehout, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 46%
Kathleen Vinehout……………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q21 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were Tom Barrett, Kathleen Falk, Doug
LaFollette, and Kathleen Vinehout, who would
you vote for? (Asked of 425 Democratic
primary voters)
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 45%
Kathleen Falk………………………………………….. 18%
Doug LaFollette ………………………………………. 14%
Kathleen Vinehout……………………………………. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%

Q22 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were just Kathleen Falk, Doug LaFollette, and
Kathleen Vinehout, who would you vote for?
(Asked of 425 Democratic primary voters)
Kathleen Falk………………………………………….. 41%
Doug LaFollette ………………………………………. 23%
Kathleen Vinehout……………………………………. 13%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%

Q23 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q26 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%

Q27 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q28 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q29 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes………………………………………………………… 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 71%

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