Polls

Obama leads battered Republican field in Ohio

| Tom Jensen

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PresidentGraphRaleigh, N.C. –
President Obama leads all 4 remaining Republican challengers in Ohio among general election voters. He leads Mitt Romney by 7 points (49-42), Newt Gingrich by 12 (51-39), Ron Paul by 10 (48-38), and Rick Santorum performs best, trailing Obama by 6 points (48-42).

Obama’s job approval rating stands at 48% approval and 48% disapproval, an improvement from 41-49 the last time PPP polled Ohio in November. By contrast, the Republican field’s collective favorability rating appears to be suffering from the negative turn the primary contests have taken in the last several weeks. All Republican candidates have net negative favorability ratings, some of them quite large – Newt Gingrich is at 25-59, Ron Paul is at 27-57, Romney’s at 28-56, and Santorum again performs best at 35-48.

While Obama enjoys an 82% job approval and 12% disapproval among his fellow Democrats, the Republican field suffers from defections in their own party – 36% of Republicans view Gingrich unfavorably, 36% view Romney unfavorably, 23% view Santorum unfavorably, and a full 56% of Republicans view Ron Paul unfavorably.

“We’ve now found Barack Obama with a solid lead in Ohio on our last two polls,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama’s benefiting from the weakness of the Republican candidate field, but his own numbers are on the rise as well. We’ve found that if he can win just one state out of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina he’s likely to be reelected so these numbers bode very well for his prospects.”

PPP released Republican primary numbers yesterday showing basically a three way tie between Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum in the state.  PPP will release numbers tomorrow looking at John Boehner’s standing and on Friday will have an update on the US Senate race.

PPP surveyed 820 Ohio voters on January 28th and 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%

Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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