Polls

GOP favors Dewhurst, Paul for Senate

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results

Senate_Primary_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – The race to take Kay Bailey Hutchison’s spot on the GOP ballot line in 2012 is afoot, and there is a host of candidates furiously putting together staffs and campaign plans to enter what should be a crowded field.  Right now, name recognition dictates that David Dewhurst and little-mentioned possibility Ron Paul are the favorites ahead of Attorney General Greg Abbott and six others with single-digit support.  Meanwhile, despite frequent denials in his interest, word is that Governor Rick Perry has been testing his numbers outside Texas in what should also be a busy presidential race.  But he should shore up his home-base support before dipping his toes into foreign waters—he places sixth behind Paul and the four national frontrunners in his own state.

Dewhurst is the preferred Senate nominee of 23% of Republican primary voters, just ahead of Paul’s 21%, with Abbott at 14%, Rep. Joe Barton at 7%, Elizabeth Ames Jones at 6%, Tom Leppert, Michael Williams, and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz at 3% apiece, and former Secretary of State Roger Williams at 1%, with 19% undecided or preferring someone else.

President_Primary_Graph Perry has a decent 65-26 job approval rating with his party faithful, but when he is pitted against the usual White House suspects, he comes in at only 9%, behind Mike Huckabee’s 24%, Sarah Palin’s and Newt Gingrich’s 17%, and even Paul’s and Mitt Romney’s 10%.  He bests only Tim Pawlenty’s 4% and Mitch Daniels’ 3%.  Despite his talk of secession and other conservative stances, Perry does best with moderates, taking 16% behind Huckabee’s 23% and Gingrich’s 17%, but he gets only 7% of the three-quarters who place themselves to the right of center.

In Perry’s absence, Palin benefits most, getting boosted to 21% behind Huckabee’s 25%, with the rest of the candidates staying pretty steady: Gingrich’s 17%, Romney’s 10%, Paul’s 9%, Pawlenty’s 5%, and Daniels’ 3%.  Palin takes all of Perry’s moderate supporters, tying Huckabee’s 23% with them.

“A Ron Paul candidacy would instantly make this one of the most interesting Senate races in the country next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “If his son can get elected, what’s to say he can’t?”

PPP surveyed 400 usual Texas Republican primary voters from January 14th to 16th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 65%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Ames Jones?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Leppert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael Williams?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%

Q10 Given the choices of Greg Abbott, Joe Barton,
Ted Cruz, David Dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames
Jones, Tom Leppert, Ron Paul, Michael
Williams, and Roger Williams who would you
most like to see as the Republican Senate
candidate in 2012?
Greg Abbott ……………………………………………. 14%
Joe Barton ……………………………………………… 7%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 3%
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 23%
Elizabeth Ames Jones………………………………. 6%
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 21%
Michael Williams ……………………………………… 3%
Roger Williams………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 19%

Q11 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 24%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 10%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 5%

Q12 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were just Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 25%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 10%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Conservative…………………………………………… 75%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 7%
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
African-American …………………………………….. 1%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

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