Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Pennsylvania poll finds Democrat Tom Wolf with a significant lead over incumbent Republican Tom Corbett in the race for Governor, despite support for Corbett’s decision not to appeal a recent court ruling on gay marriage.
Tom Wolf currently holds a 25-point lead over incumbent Governor Tom Corbett, bolstered by their diverging approval/favorable ratings, as Wolf picks up 55% of the vote to Corbett’s 30%. Pennsylvania voters have a strongly negative view on Corbett’s job performance, with 27% approving and 58% disapproving of his performance.
On the other hand, voters have a favorable opinion of Tom Wolf by a similar margin, with 47% viewing him favorably compared to only 20% unfavorably. Wolf naturally has strong support amongst Democrats, with 79% of the vote, but also picks up almost a quarter (24%) of the vote from Republicans, and a large majority (63%) of the vote amongst independents.
Despite the strongly negative view of Governor Corbett’s job performance, a significant portion of the voters agree with his decision not to appeal the recent court ruling allowing gay marriage in the state. While 45% of voters agree with the ruling, 56% agree with Corbett’s decision not to appeal, including 39% of Republicans.
This comes in a state that is pretty split on the issue of same-sex marriage, as 48% think it should be allowed in the state and 44% think it should not. Much of the disparity in agreement between the ruling and Corbett’s decision to appeal comes amongst older voters. 48% of those older than 65 agree with the decision not to appeal, where as only 36% think that same-sex marriage should be allowed in the state.
“Things aren’t getting any better for Tom Corbett,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His approval numbers are as poor as they’ve ever been, and Tom Wolf is starting out as an unusually well liked candidate for Governor even on top of that.”
PPP surveyed 835 registered voters from May 30th to June 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 27%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Wolf?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q4 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Tom
Wolf. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 30%
Tom Wolf………………………………………………… 55%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you agree or disagree with the court ruling
regarding gay marriage in Pennsylvania this
week?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 45%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Do you agree or disagree with Governor
Corbett’s decision not to appeal the court ruling
on gay marriage?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 56%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Pennsylvania, or not?
Think it should be…………………………………….. 48%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Has the legalization of gay marriage in
Pennsylvania had a positive or negative impact
on your life, or has it not had any impact at all?
Positive impact………………………………………… 12%
Negative impact ………………………………………. 23%
No impact at all ……………………………………….. 65%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Toomey’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 35%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kathleen Kane?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Katie McGinty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Sestak?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Shapiro?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat
Kathleen Kane, who would you vote for?
Pat Toomey…………………………………………….. 40%
Kathleen Kane ………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Katie
McGinty, who would you vote for?
Pat Toomey…………………………………………….. 42%
Katie McGinty …………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe
Sestak, who would you vote for?
Pat Toomey…………………………………………….. 41%
Joe Sestak……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Josh
Shapiro, who would you vote for?
Pat Toomey…………………………………………….. 41%
Josh Shapiro…………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q19 Do you think that oil and gas companies should
or should not be required to pay state taxes or
fees for the natural gas they extract in
Pennsylvania?
Think they should be required to………………… 80%
Think they should not be…………………………… 12%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 8%
Q20 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%
Q21 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q22 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q23 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 15%
Q24 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q25 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q26 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%