Polls

Without Palin, Bachmann wins in the West

| Tom Jensen

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President_Primary_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – After a well received debate performance, Michele Bachmann has surged forward. Before the debate, Bachmann garnered 8% nationally; but she has more than doubled this level of support in the three states PPP has polled the primary since the debate. However, if Sarah Palin runs, this isn’t enough to claim the lead in Oregon. Mitt Romney takes the lead with 28%, followed by Bachmann with 18%, Palin with 16%, Ron Paul with 9%, Herman Cain with 8%, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty with 6%, and Jon Huntsman with 0% support.

If Palin does not run, Bachmann is the clear choice of Palin’s supporters while Romney picks up an insignificant share. Bachmann leads with 29% to Romney’s 28%, Paul’s 10%, Gingrich’s 9%, Cain’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Huntsman’s 2%. Bachmann’s strength lies in her appeal to very conservative voters who make up 44% of GOP voters in Oregon. If Palin runs, Bachmann wins very conservatives with 24% to Romney’s 22%. This margin is expanded to a 37-26 lead without Palin.

President_Primary_Graph A similar story presents itself in Montana. Here Palin claims the lead if she takes the plunge into the race, earning 20% of the vote. Following her is Bachmann with 18%, Romney with 17%, Paul and Gingrich with 9%, Cain with 8%, Pawlenty with 7%, and Huntsman with 4%. Once again Bachmann leads if Palin doesn’t run. Without Palin, 25% support Bachmann, 22% support Romney, 11% support Gingrich, 9% support Pawlenty, 8% support Cain, and 4% support Huntsman.

Perhaps the biggest of loser of Bachmann’s surge is not Palin or Romney, but Cain. Both Romney and Palin poll similarly in Oregon and Montana to their pre-debate national standing, 22% and 15% respectively. On the other hand, Cain’s post-debate support is considerably lower than his national 17%, even in Florida, a southern state. Bachmann is likely attracting many of the same voters who rushed to Cain after his successful debate.

PPP surveyed 262 usual Oregon Republican primary voters from June 19th to 21st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-6.1%. PPP surveyed 382 usual Montana Republican primary voters from June 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Oregon Survey Results:

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q6 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next
year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 18%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 0%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%

Q7 If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 29%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 0%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 44%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

Montana Survey Results:

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 72%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q6 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next
year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 18%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%

Q7 If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 25%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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