Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s final poll on the Wisconsin recall finds Scott Walker ahead, but also a race that’s tightening. Walker leads Tom Barrett 50-47. That’s down from 50-45 on a PPP poll conducted three weeks ago and it’s also down from a 52-45 lead that Walker posted in a Marquette Law poll released last week.
Barrett is actually winning independent voters by a 48-46 margin. The reason he continues to trail overall is that Republicans are more excited about voting in Tuesday’s election than Democrats are.
Our projected electorate voted for Barack Obama by only 7 points, even though he took the state by 14 in 2008. If the folks who turn out on Tuesday actually matched the 2008 electorate, Barrett would be ahead of Walker by a 50-49 margin. It’s cliche but this is a race that really is going to completely come down to turnout.
Walker has a 51/47 approval rating. He’s up with men (55-42), whites (52-46), seniors (58-39), and especially voters in the Milwaukee suburbs (70/29).
Barrett has a 46/46 favorability rating, improved from 43/46 on our first poll after the primary. He’s winning with women (52/46), minorities (58-36), young voters (53-39), those in Milwaukee County (61-35), and ones in greater Madison (59-37).
This is a close race, closer than it was a couple weeks ago. Scott Walker’s still the favorite but Barrett’s prospects for an upset look better than they have in a long time.
“What’s going to determine Tuesday’s outcome is pretty simple,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Democrats turn out in the same numbers that they did in 2008 Tom Barrett will win a surprise victory. And if they don’t Scott Walker will survive.”
PPP surveyed 1,226 likely voters on June 2nd and 3rd.. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates in the recall election for
Governor are Democrat Tom Barrett and
Republican Scott Walker. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 47%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 51%
Disapprove………… 47%
Not sure ……………. 2%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Barrett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Q10 Area Code
262………………………………………………………… 20%
414………………………………………………………… 12%
608………………………………………………………… 23%
715………………………………………………………… 23%
920………………………………………………………… 22%
