Polls

Voters think it’s time for Emmer to give up

| Tom Jensen

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Concede_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – More than two thirds of Minnesota voters think that Mark Dayton was the rightful winner of last month’s Gubernatorial election and that it’s time for Tom Emmer to concede.

68% think that Dayton was the true victor to only 21% who think it was Emmer and 11% who aren’t sure.  Predictably 95% of Democrats think Dayton won and 72% of independents do as well.  What might be more surprising is the numbers with Republicans.  Fewer than half- 46%- think Emmer won while 37% think Dayton was actually the winner.  Even within his own party there isn’t a particularly strong sentiment that Emmer really won.

The numbers on whether Emmer should concede are nearly identical.  68% think it’s time for him to give up while 22% believe he should fight on and 10% aren’t sure.  What might be most noteworthy about these numbers is how they compare to an April 2009 poll PPP conducted on whether it was time for Norm Coleman to concede.  63% thought it was time for him to let it go while 37% thought he should fight on, for a 26 point margin in favor of concession.  This time around there is a 46 point margin in favor of concession, and this is four months earlier in the process than when the Senate poll was conducted.

The protracted fight over who won the Governor’s race isn’t doing Emmer’s image any favors.  49% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 37% with a positive one.  It’s no surprise that Democrats are pretty universally negative toward Emmer, giving him a 4/86 favorability rating.  But independents are overwhelmingly negative as well with only 30% saying they have a positive opinion of him.

“Tom Emmer is likely hurting his future political prospects by drawing out the race for Governor,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “Voters in the state, including many who voted for him, think that Mark Dayton was the rightful winner of the election.”

PPP will release numbers on the 2012 Senate race in Minnesota tomorrow.

PPP surveyed 949 Minnesota voters on December 4th and 5th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.2%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you think the rightful winner of the
Governor’s race was Mark Dayton or Tom
Emmer?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 68%
Tom Emmer ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q2 Do you think Tom Emmer should concede the
Governor’s race or not?
Should concede ………………………………………. 68%
Should not concede …………………………………… 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Emmer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%

Q7 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%

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