Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s latest poll of Wyoming
voters finds that Liz Cheney’s Senate hopes in the state may be dead on
arrival. She has just a 33% favorability rating across the state, and she
trails both Senator Mike Enzi and Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis in head to head
primary matchups. She is currently down 41% to 34% against Lummis, trailing
with every ideological group besides “very conservative”, which she leads by 5%.
Things are even worse against Enzi, who more than doubles Cheney’s total, 54%
to 26%.
Should
Cheney somehow emerge victorious in the primary, she may jeopardize the GOP’s
ability to hold the seat. The poll finds that she trails former Democratic
Governor Dave Freudenthal 45% to 42%, the only situation in which a Democrat is
even remotely close to winning. This is rather impressive for Freudenthal, who
has a 55% favorable rating, as only 53% of respondents said they could ever
vote for a Democrat for Senator.
Cheney’s
poor standing may be due to a common sentiment in the Cowboy State that Cheney
doesn’t belong. Only 31% of respondents consider Cheney to be a Wyomingite, including
36% of Republican primary voters, and 50% believe that she should be running in
Virginia instead. This feeling does not hold for the rest of the family,
though, as former VP Dick Cheney has a 50% favorability in the state.
“Liz
Cheney’s Senate prospects don’t look very good,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “Wyoming voters see her as an outsider, and on top of
that Mike Enzi is very popular in the state.”
Meanwhile, in the race for Governor, Matt Mead holds a monumental 54 point lead
over State Superintendent Cindy Hill in the Republican primary. In the general
election Mead would lead Freudenthal 47-36 if the former Governor tried to make
a return to office. Senator John Barrasso has a 64% approval rating, while
President Obama has the support of just 27% of the state.
PPP surveyed 1,203 registered voters between July 19-21,
2013, including 780 Republican primary voters. The margin of error was +/- 2.8%
statewide and +/- 3.5% for the primary. This poll was not authorized or paid
for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through
automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 27%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 70%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Matt Mead’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Barrasso’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 64%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mike
Enzi’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 59%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Liz Cheney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Freudenthal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Trauner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Mike Enzi and Democrat Dave
Freudenthal, who would you vote for?
Mike Enzi ……………………………………………….. 54%
Dave Freudenthal ……………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Mike Enzi and Democrat Gary
Trauner, who would you vote for?
Mike Enzi ……………………………………………….. 66%
Gary Trauner…………………………………………… 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Liz Cheney and Democrat Dave
Freudenthal, who would you vote for?
Liz Cheney……………………………………………… 42%
Dave Freudenthal ……………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Liz Cheney and Democrat Gary
Trauner, who would you vote for?
Liz Cheney……………………………………………… 49%
Gary Trauner…………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q12 Would you ever consider supporting a
Democrat for the US Senate, or not?
Would ……………………………………………………. 53%
Would not……………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congesswoman Cynthia Lummis’ job
performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of State
Superintendent Cindy Hill’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 23%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Matt Mead and Democrat Dave
Freudenthal, who would you vote for?
Matt Mead………………………………………………. 47%
Dave Freudenthal ……………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Matt Mead and Democrat Gary
Trauner, who would you vote for?
Matt Mead………………………………………………. 62%
Gary Trauner…………………………………………… 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q17 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Cindy Hill and Democrat Dave
Freudenthal, who would you vote for?
Cindy Hill………………………………………………… 23%
Dave Freudenthal ……………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q18 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Cindy Hill and Democrat Gary
Trauner, who would you vote for?
Cindy Hill………………………………………………… 29%
Gary Trauner…………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q19 Do you consider Liz Cheney to be a
Wyomingite, or not?
Consider her one …………………………………….. 31%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q20 Do you think it would be more appropriate for
Liz Cheney to run for the Senate from
Wyoming or Virginia?
Wyoming………………………………………………… 28%
Virginia…………………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dick Cheney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 28%
Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 22%
Republican……………………………………………… 62%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q25 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q26 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mike
Enzi’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 66%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Liz Cheney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congesswoman Cynthia Lummis’ job
performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 55%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of State
Superintendent Cindy Hill’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 23%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate next year were Liz
Cheney and Mike Enzi, who would you vote
for?
Liz Cheney……………………………………………… 26%
Mike Enzi ……………………………………………….. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were Liz
Cheney and Cynthia Lummis, who would you
vote for?
Liz Cheney……………………………………………… 34%
Cynthia Lummis ………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Cindy Hill and Matt Mead, who would you vote
for?
Cindy Hill………………………………………………… 15%
Matt Mead………………………………………………. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q8 Do you consider Liz Cheney to be a
Wyomingite, or not?
Consider her one …………………………………….. 36%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q9 Do you think it would be more appropriate for
Liz Cheney to run for the Senate from
Wyoming or Virginia?
Wyoming………………………………………………… 33%
Virginia…………………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
