Raleigh, N.C. – More Pennsylvania voters disapprove of Barack Obama than like the job he’s doing and that goes a long way toward explaining the current small lead Pat Toomey holds over Arlen Specter in the state’s Senate race.

Specter has a 71 point lead over Toomey with people who approve of Obama.  Toomey has a 71 point lead over Specter with people who disapprove of Obama.  That makes Obama’s approval the deciding factor in who leads the Senate race and for now 46% of voters in the state approve of the job he’s doing to 50% who disapprove.

Toomey leads Specter 46-43.  He’s winning 78% of the Republican vote while Specter has just 71% of the Democratic vote nailed down, and he also has a 41-38 lead with independents.

A majority of voters in the state disapprove of Specter.  52% give him poor marks to only 34% who think he’s doing a good job.  Republicans are arrayed against him by a 78/12 margin and independents are 52/32.  Neither of those things is particularly unusual for a Democratic candidate right now, but he also has tepid numbers within his own party as just 53% of Democrats approve of him to 30% who disapprove.  Many of the ones who disapprove are still planning to vote for him this fall but that doesn’t bode well for getting the party’s voters motivated to turn out in November.

“Arlen Specter isn’t very popular but if Pennsylvania voters felt the same way about Barack Obama today that they did a year ago Democrats would be winning this race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “If the President rebounds by the fall Specter will too.”

PPP surveyed 934 Pennsylvania voters from March 29^th to April 1st.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.2%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you think that Republicans should work to
repeal the health care bill that was passed last
week? If yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 49%
No …………………………………………………………. 44%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 7%

Q3 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Support ………………………………………………….. 42%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 49%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 8%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 31%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Arlen
Specter’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 14%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Sestak? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 65%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat Toomey? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 58%

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Arlen Specter and Republican Pat
Toomey, who would you vote for? If Arlen
Specter, press 1. If Pat Toomey, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Specter ………………. 43%
Toomey………………. 46%
Undecided…………… 11%

Q9 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat
Toomey, who would you vote for? If Joe
Sestak, press 1. If Pat Toomey, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Sestak……………………………………………………. 36%
Toomey………………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%

Q10 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press
2. If someone else or you don’t remember,
press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 48%
Obama…………………………………………………… 49%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 2%