Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds that Thom Tillis’ support has declined after a month defined by his gaffes on the campaign trail, and that he’s now tied for the Republican Senate nomination with Greg Brannon. Tillis and Brannon are both at 14%, followed by Heather Grant at 11%, Ted Alexander and Mark Harris at 7%, Alex Bradshaw at 6%, Jim Snyder at 4%, and Edward Kryn at 1%. A month ago Tillis led Brannon 20/13.
Tillis drew a lot of attention last month for his comments on Obamacare and the minimum wage, and what he said about those things doesn’t play well with the GOP base. On the day he filed Tillis made news by suggesting he didn’t think there should be a minimum wage- but even among GOP primary voters only 27% support eliminating it to 56% that would be opposed. More problematic for Tillis could be his statement last week that ‘Obamacare is a great idea that can’t be paid for.’ Only 15% of primary agree with Tillis’ sentiment that ‘Obamacare is a great idea,’ to 78% who say they disagree with it.
The general election for the Senate race continues to look like a toss up, with every potential match up within 2 points one way or the other. The numbers are a slight improvement for Kay Hagan compared to a month ago- she leads Tillis 45/43, Kryn 43/41, and Grant 43/42, she is tied with Bradshaw, Brannon and Harris at 43, and she trails Snyder 43/42 and Alexander 45/43. The issues are starting to set up a little bit better for Hagan as well. There is overwhelming support for the proposed minimum wage hike to $10 an hour that the leading Republicans oppose, 59/33. The GOP candidates have said they think the state should have the right to ban birth control but only 12% of North Carolinians agree with them, compared to 75% who disagree.
“This is the first poll where we’ve seen any improvement in Kay Hagan’s overall situation since September,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The Republican primary is a mess, and she’s doing better in head to heads as the issues in the news work more to her advantage.”
PPP surveyed 884 registered voters from March 6th to 9th, including 392 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.3%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.0%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Alexander?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Bradshaw?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Edward Kryn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Snyder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Ted
Alexander, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Ted Alexander…………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Alex
Bradshaw, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Alex Bradshaw………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg
Brannon, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Heather
Grant, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Mark
Harris, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Edward
Kryn, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 43%
Edward Kryn …………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Jim
Snyder, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 42%
Jim Snyder……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q18 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 45%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q19 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 59%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q20 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q21 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 10%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 30%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 17%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q22 Do you think the state of North Carolina should
have the power to ban birth control?
Yes………………………………………………………… 12%
No …………………………………………………………. 75%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q23 Would you support or oppose eliminating the
minimum wage?
Support ………………………………………………….. 20%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q24 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q26 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q27 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q28 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q29 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Q30 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 8%
336………………………………………………………… 17%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 10%
910………………………………………………………… 11%
919………………………………………………………… 15%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Alexander?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Bradshaw?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Edward Kryn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Snyder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q9 Given the choices of Ted Alexander, Alex
Bradshaw, Greg Brannon, Heather Grant, Mark
Harris, Edward Kryn, Jim Snyder, and Thom
Tillis, who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Senate this fall?
Ted Alexander…………………………………………. 7%
Alex Bradshaw………………………………………… 6%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 14%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 11%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 7%
Edward Kryn …………………………………………… 1%
Jim Snyder……………………………………………… 4%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 14%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 36%
Q10 Thom Tillis has said that ‘Obamacare is a great
idea that can’t be paid for.’ Do you agree or
disagree with Tillis that Obamacare is a great
idea?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 15%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 78%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 Do you think the state of North Carolina should
have the power to ban birth control?
Yes………………………………………………………… 21%
No …………………………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Would you support or oppose eliminating the
minimum wage?
Support ………………………………………………….. 27%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Q16 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 8%
336………………………………………………………… 26%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 11%
910………………………………………………………… 10%
919………………………………………………………… 14%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 13%