Raleigh, N.C. – Despite leading in their respective primaries, Rand Paul and Dan Mongiardo look weaker in potential November matchups for Jim Bunning’s Senate seat than do challengers Jack Conway and Trey Grayson.
Grayson has almost identical leads over each of the Democrats, 42-34 over Conway and 43-35 over Mongiardo. But Paul is ahead of Conway only 41-40 and Mongiardo 42-38. These slim leads for the conservative challenger come despite a near majority, 49%, of Kentucky voters labeling themselves conservatives.
Among those voters, the Republican nominee makes no difference, but Mongiardo and, particularly, Conway draw more of the moderate and liberal vote against Paul than against Grayson. Paul does fare slightly better than Grayson among independents.
Mongiardo is viewed worst among the four candidates, with only 24% having a positive view of him, to 36% with a negative opinion. Paul is also viewed poorly, 28-35. Reflecting their stronger standing in general election matches, feelings on the other two are split, 24-24 for Grayson and 20-22 for Conway. Paul is seen favorably by conservatives, 42-20, to 28-25 for Grayson, but Paul is seen twice as negatively among moderates, 46% to 23% for Grayson.
Yesterday’s PPP release showed a 68% approval for the goals of the Tea Party movement among Republicans, but the overall Kentucky electorate shows only a 45-34 approval rating, with a mere 18% of Kentucky voters saying they are members of the movement.
“Democrats are looking a good deal more competitive in this race than they did four months ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Rand Paul wins the Republican nomination it could really end up as a top tier contest.”
PPP surveyed 946 Kentucky voters on May 1st and 2nd. The margin of error for the survey was +/-3.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve…………….. 37%
Disapprove………… 59%
Not Sure……………. 4%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Support ………………………………………………….. 32%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 59%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 9%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 43%
Disapprove………….. 43%
Not sure ……………… 14%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim
Bunning’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 30%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 25%
Q5 Do you have a higher opinion of Mitch
McConnell or Jim Bunning?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 48%
Jim Bunning ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Conway?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 58%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Trey Grayson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Mongiardo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 40%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Trey
Grayson, who would you vote for?
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 34%
Trey Grayson………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 40%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Dan Mongiardo and Republican Trey
Grayson, who would you vote for?
Dan Mongiardo ……………………………………….. 35%
Trey Grayson………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Dan Mongiardo and Republican
Rand Paul, who would you vote for?
Dan Mongiardo ……………………………………….. 38%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q14 Do you support or oppose the goals of the ‘Tea
Party’ movement?
Support ………………………………………………….. 45%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q15 Do you personally identify as a member of the
‘Tea Party’ movement?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 18%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
Not Sure ……………………………………………….. 24%
Q16 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama,
press 2. If someone else or you don’t
remember, press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 54%
Obama…………………………………………………… 37%
Someone else/don’t remember ………………….. 9%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Conservative…………………………………………… 49%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 88%
African American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
