Polls

Tight gubernatorial race in New Hampshire

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
With John Lynch’s retirement, the gubernatorial race in the Granite State is wide open.  All four variations of the fall contest are essentially ties.  Maggie Hassan tops likely GOP nominee Ovide Lamontagne, 45-43, and challenger Kevin Smith, 42-39.  Jackie Cilley ties Lamontagne at 42%, and leads Smith, 39-38.  12% to 23% of voters are undecided in these match-ups—still a lot, but down from 21-32% when PPP last polled the race in May.

There is some question who will emerge from the somewhat sleepy Democratic primary as well, but Lamontagne has a more than 2:1 edge for the GOP nod.  He leads Smith by a 49-21 margin.  That is down from a 53-13 advantage in May, but it should be enough to survive the next month.  On the other side of the aisle, Hassan is retaining a slim lead over Cilley, 30-24, but a huge 46% are undecided, so anything could happen in the closing weeks.   In the last poll, Hassan was up 23-20, with 57% not sure.

In the most likely fall pairing, voters have moved a bit toward Hassan and against Lamontagne, who led 40-39 three months ago.  If Hassan can continue to make up her name identification gap with Lamontagne (of whom only 31% have no opinion), her slight edge could grow significantly.  With those who already have an opinion on both candidates personally, whether positive or negative, Hassan leads by 21 points.  Cilley leads by 22 points with those who are aware of both her and Lamontagne.

The Democrats could also get a boost from their predecessor’s endorsement.  60% of voters approve of Lynch’s job performance, and only 26% disapprove.  Those numbers make him the most popular governor on which PPP has polled since the start of 2011.  Two-thirds of independents and even 29% of Republicans give him the nod.  With those who approve, Hassan and Cilley have leads of 44 and 38 points over Lamontagne.

“This is a sheer toss-up, but if there is movement, it will probably be toward the Democratic nominee,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 1,055 likely New Hampshire voters, including an oversample of 400 Democratic primary voters and 662 Republican primary voters, from August 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.0%, +/-4.9% for the Democratic sample, and +/-3.8% for the GOP portion.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kelly
Ayotte’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .45%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .13%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jackie Cilley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Maggie Hassan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ovide Lamontagne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kevin Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%

Q6 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Jackie Cilley and Republican Ovide
Lamontagne, who would you vote for?
Jackie Cilley……………………………………………. 42%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican
Ovide Lamontagne, who would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 45%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Jackie Cilley and Republican Kevin
Smith, who would you vote for?
Jackie Cilley……………………………………………. 39%
Kevin Smith…………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican
Kevin Smith, who would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 42%
Kevin Smith…………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Lynch’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .60%
Disapprove…………. .26%
Not sure …………….. .14%

Q11 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q12 Would you support or oppose a constitutional
amendment that would ban new taxes on
personal income?
Support ………………………………………………….. 32%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jackie Cilley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Maggie Hassan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q3 The Democratic candidates for Governor are
Jackie Cilley and Maggie Hassan. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Jackie Cilley……………………………………………. 24%
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 46%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 34%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 6%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 1%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 60%
Man……………………………………………………….. 40%

Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 66%
Republican……………………………………………… 2%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%

Q7 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ovide Lamontagne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kevin Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%

Q3 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Ovide Lamontagne and Kevin Smith. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 49%
Kevin Smith…………………………………………….. 21%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 31%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 1%
Republican……………………………………………… 66%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%

Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

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