Over the weekend we did a poll that really showed how what’s pretty much guaranteed to be a good year for Democrats could quickly become an exceptional one.

It was in a Congressional district that voted for Trump by 21 points, and voters there said they only preferred Republicans by 11 points this year.

A 10 point shift like that would mean a Democratic House, up to 5 new Democratic Governors, a coin flip for the Senate, and huge gains in legislative seats across the country.

But we also asked people how excited they are to vote this year on the poll. And that’s where it gets really interesting. Among people ‘very excited’ to cast their ballots Democrats have a 1 point lead in this Trump +21 district.

The only reason Republicans have their overall lead is that they’re up by 20 points with those who are only somewhat or not that excited to vote.

At this point our calculations are assuming all those unexcited people are going to vote just the same. But what if they don’t? It’s easy to imagine based on who’s excited and who’s not that maybe that R+11 advantage only ends up being somewhere between R+6 and R+8 with those who actually turn out.

That would be a 13-15 point shift from 2024 and we’re talking floodgates at that point. A clear Democratic Senate. Legislative chambers flipping that nobody expected. A robust majority in the House.

Usually in a midterm you expect the party out of power to do well, and then they end up doing even better than expected. We’re seeing definite evidence in these enthusiasm numbers that could happen again this time.