Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Alaska poll finds the Republican primary for Senate becoming increasingly less competitive. Dan Sullivan is now out to a 14 point lead with 40% to 26% for Mead Treadwell, 14% for Joe Miller, and 3% for John Jaramillo. The race has been moving more and more in Sullivan’s direction in our polling over the last nine months. In July Treadwell led Sullivan 33/25. Since then Sullivan’s support has moved from that 25% mark last summer to 30% in February and now 40%. Meanwhile Treadwell dropped from 33% in July to 25% in February and is now pretty much holding steady with his 26% mark.
Mark Begich leads all of his potential Republican opponents, but the match ups are pretty close across the board. He’s up 42/37 on Sullivan with third party candidates combining for 7%, he’s up 41/33 on Treadwell with third party candidates combining for 9%, and he’s up 43/27 on Miller with third party candidates combining for 6%. Voters are closely divided in their feelings about Begich with 44% approving of him and 45% disapproving.
Begich is staying ahead despite the state’s GOP lean because of his strong support from independents. He leads Sullivan by 19 points, Treadwell by 20 points, and Miller by 27 points with them. He also has a more unified party with 76-79% of Democrats saying they’ll vote for him, while only 55-70% of GOP voters say they’re committed to their potential party nominees for this fall.
“There hasn’t been much movement in this race over the last three months,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Mark Begich has a small lead but the undecided voters aren’t friendly toward him, so this is likely to be an extremely close contest in November.”
Sean Parnell is polling at only 37% for reelection as Governor, but with opposition to him split between Democrat Byron Mallott (27%) and independent Bill Walker (17%) it’s still enough to give him a double digit lead. Voters in the state are pretty evenly divided on Parnell’s performance with 42% approving and 44% disapproving of him.
PPP surveyed 582 registered voters from May 8th to 11th, including 313 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 4.1%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.5%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Begich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Sullivan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mead Treadwell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Joe Miller,
Alaskan Independence Party candidate
Zachary Kile, independent Ted Gianoutsos,
and independent Sidney Hill, who would you
vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 43%
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 27%
Zachary Kile……………………………………………. 4%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 0%
Sidney Hill………………………………………………. 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Sarah
Palin, Alaskan Independence Party candidate
Zachary Kile, independent Ted Gianoutsos,
and independent Sidney Hill, who would you
vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 41%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 35%
Zachary Kile……………………………………………. 6%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 1%
Sidney Hill………………………………………………. 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Dan
Sullivan, Alaskan Independence Party
candidate Zachary Kile, independent Ted
Gianoutsos, and independent Sidney Hill, who
would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 42%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 37%
Zachary Kile……………………………………………. 5%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 1%
Sidney Hill………………………………………………. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 (Asked only of Kile, Gianotsos, and Hill
supporters:) If you had to choose between just
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Dan
Sullivan, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 43%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Mead
Treadwell, Alaskan Independence Party
candidate Zachary Kile, independent Ted
Gianoutsos, and independent Sidney Hill, who
would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 41%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 33%
Zachary Kile……………………………………………. 6%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 1%
Sidney Hill………………………………………………. 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sean Parnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Byron Mallott?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Sean Parnell, Democrat Byron
Mallott, Constitution Party candidate J.R.
Myers, and independent Bill Walker, who would
you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 37%
Byron Mallott…………………………………………… 27%
J.R. Myers………………………………………………. 4%
Bill Walker………………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q15 If the candidates for Lieutenant Governor this
fall were Republican Lesil McGuire and
Democrat Hollis French, who would you vote
for?
Lesil McGuire………………………………………….. 41%
Hollis French…………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q16 If the candidates for Lieutenant Governor this
fall were Republican Dan Sullivan and
Democrat Hollis French, who would you vote
for?
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 42%
Hollis French…………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q17 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 16%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 18%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 53%
Q21 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 20%
Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q23 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Sullivan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mead Treadwell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q4 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
John Jaramillo, Joe Miller, Dan Sullivan, and
Mead Treadwell, who would you vote for?
John Jaramillo…………………………………………. 3%
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 14%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 40%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 26%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 17%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for Lieutenant
Governor were Lesil McGuire and Dan
Sullivan, who would you vote for?
Lesil McGuire………………………………………….. 27%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 5%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 31%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
