Raleigh, N.C. – The news is good for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and bad for Rick Santorum in PPP’s final polls of the three biggest Super Tuesday states.
In Ohio Romney leads with 37% to 36% for Santorum, 15% for Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.
In Tennessee Santorum leads with 34% to 29% for Romney, 27% for Gingrich, and 8% for Paul.
In Georgia Gingrich leads with 47% to 24% for Romney, 19% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.
Here’s the breakdown on each individual state:
-In Ohio late deciding voters are breaking toward Romney. He leads Santorum 40-28 with those who have made up their minds in the last few days or the last week. He’s also going into election day with the lead. He’s up 41-34 on Santorum with those who have already voted- that cushion from early voters helped put him over the top in Michigan last week.
-In Tennessee Santorum’s saving grace may end up being early voters. 25% of the electorate has already voted and with those folks he’s at 39% to 32% for Romney and 23% for Gingrich. Also working to Santorum’s considerable advantage in Tennessee is that we find an electorate that is 66% Evangelicals, and they support Santorum 39-27 over Gingrich with Romney at 25%. The late momentum is on Romney’s side. He’s up 38-34 on Santorum with those who’ve decided in the last few days or the last week.
-In Georgia Gingrich is basically winning every group of the electorate. 66% of Republicans in the state have a favorable opinion of him to only 27% with a negative one.
PPP surveyed 728 likely Republican primary voters in Georgia, 666 in Ohio, and 525 in Tennessee on March 3rd and 4th. The margins of error for the surveys are +/-3.6%, +/-3.8%, and +/-4.3% respectively. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Ohio Toplines
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,
or do you plan to vote on election day?
Already voted………………………………………….. 14%
Plan to vote on election day………………………. 86%
Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 34%
Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican
candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 36%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 3%
Q5 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 72%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 28%
Q6 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 36%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the Republican candidates were just Ron
Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 27%
No …………………………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 43%
Are not …………………………………………………… 57%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If an independent, press
3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 5%
Republican……………………………………………… 76%
Independent……………………………………………. 19%
Q18 Which best describes when you decided who
to vote for: in the last few days, the last week,
the last month, or earlier than that?
In the last few days ………………………………….. 12%
In the last week……………………………………….. 10%
In the last month ……………………………………… 37%
Earlier than that ………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q19 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States, or not?
He was…………………………………………………… 42%
He was not……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rush Limbaugh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Tennessee Toplines
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,
or do you plan to vote on election day?
Already voted………………………………………….. 25%
Plan to vote on election day………………………. 75%
Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 32%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 39%
Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican
candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 28%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 32%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 3%
Q5 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 67%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 33%
Q6 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 27%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 29%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 34%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 If the Republican candidates were just Ron
Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 34%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 32%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 48%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 26%
No …………………………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q16 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 66%
Are not …………………………………………………… 34%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If an independent, press
3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 6%
Republican……………………………………………… 75%
Independent……………………………………………. 19%
Q18 Which best describes when you decided who
to vote for: in the last few days, the last week,
the last month, or earlier than that?
In the last few days ………………………………….. 9%
In the last week……………………………………….. 10%
In the last month ……………………………………… 35%
Earlier than that ………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q19 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States, or not?
He was…………………………………………………… 33%
He was not……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rush Limbaugh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Georgia Toplines
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,
or do you plan to vote on election day?
Already voted………………………………………….. 16%
Plan to vote on election day………………………. 84%
Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 53%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 19%
Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican
candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 46%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 19%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 3%
Q5 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 71%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 29%
Q6 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 47%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 19%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 Do you consider Newt Gingrich to be a
Georgian, or not?
Yes………………………………………………………… 71%
No …………………………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 If the Republican candidates were just Ron
Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q16 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q17 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 55%
Are not …………………………………………………… 45%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If an independent, press
3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 4%
Republican……………………………………………… 75%
Independent……………………………………………. 21%
Q19 Which best describes when you decided who
to vote for: in the last few days, the last week,
the last month, or earlier than that?
In the last few days ………………………………….. 9%
In the last week……………………………………….. 9%
In the last month ……………………………………… 30%
Earlier than that ………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q20 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States, or not?
He was…………………………………………………… 40%
He was not……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rush Limbaugh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
