Raleigh, N.C. – Barely leading a four-way statistical tie in the GOP gubernatorial primary but running best of the five among independents, Rick Snyder leads the two Democrats vying for Jennifer Granholm’s office, Virg Bernero and Andy Dillon, by double digits. While Bernero and Dillon both lag nearly all of the Republicans, Bernero polls best and is the only one to lead a Republican overall or among independents.
Snyder tops Dillon, 46-26, and Bernero, 44-28. Pete Hoekstra leads Dillon, 41-32, and Bernero, 41-34. Mike Bouchard beats Dillon, 38-29, and Bernero, 39-34. In all three races, the Republican does slightly better across the partisan spectrum against Dillon.
Mike Cox is ahead of Dillon 40-32, but above Bernero only 38-36. Cox performs a bit better with Republicans and Democrats against Dillon, but the main difference is that while Bernero leads among independents, 35-33, Dillon lags, 34-25.
Bernero tops Tom George, 31-30, but Dillon is behind, 32-31. George is favored by independents only 23-22 over Bernero, but 23-15 against Dillon.
The Democrats suffer from their lack of name recognition and attention paid to their primary. 77% have not heard of Bernero; 70% are unaware of Dillon. Yesterday’s release showed 51% undecided in the Bernero-Dillon race, versus 20% in the GOP one, and more Democrats than Republicans are undecided in most of the November matchups
Snyder is by far the most popular, with a 25-13 favorability rating to Hoekstra’s 27-23, Bouchard’s 18-19, Bernero’s 11-12, George’s 4-9, Dillon’s 9-20, and Cox’s 25-38.
“At this point, this is the GOP’s race to lose, regardless of who wins their primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That said, Rick Snyder is looking the strongest, despite still being less known than Pete Hoekstra and Mike Cox.”
PPP surveyed 890 Michigan voters from May 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Jennifer Granholm’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Bouchard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 63%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virg Bernero?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 77%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Cox?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 38%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andy Dillon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 70%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom George?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 86%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 50%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Snyder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 62%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor were Republican
Mike Bouchard and Democrat Virg Bernero,
who would you vote for?
Mike Bouchard………………………………………… 39%
Virg Bernero……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor were Republican
Mike Bouchard and Democrat Andy Dillon, who
would you vote for?
Mike Bouchard………………………………………… 38%
Andy Dillon……………………………………………… 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 33%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor were Republican
Mike Cox and Democrat Virg Bernero, who
would you vote for?
Mike Cox………………………………………………… 38%
Virg Bernero……………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor were Republican
Mike Cox and Democrat Andy Dillon, who
would you vote for?
Mike Cox………………………………………………… 40%
Andy Dillon……………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor were Republican
Tom George and Democrat Virg Bernero, who
would you vote for?
Tom George……………………………………………. 30%
Virg Bernero……………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 39%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor were Republican
Tom George and Democrat Andy Dillon, who
would you vote for?
Tom George……………………………………………. 32%
Andy Dillon……………………………………………… 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 38%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor were Republican
Pete Hoekstra and Democrat Virg Bernero,
who would you vote for?
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 41%
Virg Bernero……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor were Republican
Pete Hoekstra and Democrat Andy Dillon, who
would you vote for?
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 41%
Andy Dillon……………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q17 If the candidates for Governor were Republican
Rick Snyder and Democrat Virg Bernero, who
would you vote for?
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 44%
Virg Bernero……………………………………………. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q18 If the candidates for Governor were Republican
Rick Snyder and Democrat Andy Dillon, who
would you vote for?
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 46%
Andy Dillon……………………………………………… 26%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q19 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 6%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q23 If you are white, press one now. If you are
African-American, press two now. If other,
press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
