Raleigh, N.C. – As PPP showed yesterday, Olympia Snowe may have a tough road surviving a primary if she chooses to run for re-election and fight for her place on the GOP ticket she has always called home. But whether she is the Republican nominee or an independent, she should be easily elected to a fourth term.
As a Republican, Snowe would top state Rep. Emily Cain, 64-20, and businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli, 66-18. She takes 60-66% of independents and even 51-53% of Democrats in these matchups. If she is knocked off the GOP ballot line and makes an independent bid, Snowe would prevail with 54-57% of the vote over the four permutations of Cain, Scarcelli, and Republicans Scott D’Amboise and Andrew Ian Dodge. The Republican candidate would get 19-21% and the Democrat 13-17%. Despite her danger in the primary, Snowe still takes a 48% plurality of the GOP in any of the three-ways, along with 63-66% of independents, and 58-60% of Democrats. Voters are certainly encouraging her to run as an independent—pluralities of all three partisan groups think she fits best without a party than as either a Republican or Democrat.
Yesterday’s release showed Snowe with only a 47-44 approval margin with her own party’s primary voters. But because of overwhelming approval from the Democrats (67%) and independents (63%) who together make up almost two-thirds of the state, she has an overall 60-32 job performance mark, making her the eighth most popular of 82 senators on which PPP has polled in the last 14 months.
By contrast, none of her four potential opponents is well-known at all, and all of them are disliked. Scarcelli is the highest-profile, but 53% still have no opinion of her, and those who do break 14-33 against her. 66% are unaware of Cain (12-21), 80% of D’Amboise (4-15), and 84% of Dodge (3-13). Thus, if Snowe retires, the race between two of these four unknowns would start off a tossup, with 34-38% of voters undecided and the rest split pretty evenly. Scarcelli would be a slightly weaker candidate at this point than Cain.
“Olympia Snowe’s most straight forward path to reelection is as an independent,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It appears she would coast from that platform, whereas her road as a Republican looks tough.”
PPP surveyed 1,247 Maine voters from March 3rd to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Olympia Snowe’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 60%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Emily Cain?
Favorable ………….. 12%
Unfavorable……….. 21%
Not sure ……………. 66%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott D’Amboise?
Favorable ………….. 4%
Unfavorable……….. 15%
Not sure ……………. 80%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Ian Dodge?
Favorable ………….. 3%
Unfavorable……….. 13%
Not sure ……………. 84%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rosa Scarcelli?
Favorable ………….. 14%
Unfavorable……….. 33%
Not sure ……………. 53%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Olympia Snowe and Democrat
Emily Cain, who would you vote for?
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 64%
Emily Cain………………………………………………. 20%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Olympia Snowe and Democrat
Rosa Scarcelli, who would you vote for?
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 66%
Rosa Scarcelli…………………………………………. 18%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Scott D’Amboise and Democrat
Emily Cain, who would you vote for?
Scott D’Amboise ……………………………………… 33%
Emily Cain………………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 34%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Scott D’Amboise and Democrat
Rosa Scarcelli, who would you vote for?
Scott D’Amboise ……………………………………… 36%
Rosa Scarcelli…………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 35%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Andrew Ian Dodge and Democrat
Emily Cain, who would you vote for?
Andrew Ian Dodge ………………………………….. 30%
Emily Cain………………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 37%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Andrew Ian Dodge and Democrat
Rosa Scarcelli, who would you vote for?
Andrew Ian Dodge ………………………………….. 33%
Rosa Scarcelli…………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 38%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Scott D’Amboise, Democrat Emily
Cain, and Independent Olympia Snowe who
would you vote for?
Scott D’Amboise ……………………………………… 21%
Emily Cain………………………………………………. 17%
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 54%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Scott D’Amboise, Democrat Rosa
Scarcelli, and Independent Olympia Snowe
who would you vote for?
Scott D’Amboise ……………………………………… 20%
Rosa Scarcelli…………………………………………. 15%
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 56%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Andrew Ian Dodge, Democrat
Emily Cain, and Independent Olympia Snowe
who would you vote for?
Andrew Ian Dodge …………………………………… 19%
Emily Cain………………………………………………. 15%
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 56%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Andrew Ian Dodge, Democrat
Rosa Scarcelli, and Independent Olympia
Snowe who would you vote for?
Andrew Ian Dodge …………………………………… 19%
Rosa Scarcelli…………………………………………. 13%
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 57%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 Do you think Olympia Snowe is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 27%
Too conservative……………………………………… 16%
About right ……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q17 Do you think Olympia Snowe most properly
belongs in the Democratic Party, the
Republican Party, or as an independent?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 22%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q21 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
