Raleigh, N.C. – Although the political climate has worsened overall for Democrats since September, little has changed in the New Hampshire Senate race. In a November election, voters prefer Jeanne Shaheen over Scott Brown by 3 points (46/43), numbers that are little changed from a 4 point Shaheen lead before the Obamacare rollout.
Shaheen holds double-digit leads in matchups against all other possible Republican challengers (48/34 over Bob Smith, 49/33 over Jim Rubens, and 47/30 over Karen Testerman). However, voters still see Brown unfavorably, with only 34% viewing him favorably and 40% unfavorably. For Shaheen, voters narrowly approve of the job she’s doing (44/43). President Obama’s recent low job approval ratings extend to New Hampshire as well, where 41% approve of the job he’s doing to 53% who disapprove.
Among Republicans, Scott Brown leads the primary field, with 42% of likely Republican primary voters in support. The next-highest candidates, Andy Martin and Bob Smith, got only 11% each. The numbers also show possibilities of trouble ahead for Brown if he does get into the race though. A plurality of GOP voters say they’d be less likely to vote for a candidate who supported an assault weapons ban, and voters also react negatively to someone who is pro-choice on the issue of abortion.
Maggie Hassan’s in a strong position for reelection as Governor. 52% of voters approve of the job she’s doing to only 27% who disapprove, and she leads all of the potential GOP opponents we tested against her by at least 20 points. It’s 51/31 over Bill Binnie, 50/27 over Chuck Morse, 50/26 over George Lambert, and 51/25 over Andrew Hemingway.
“The intrigue in New Hampshire this year really comes down to whether Scott Brown runs or not,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The Senate race could be close if he survived the Republican primary- otherwise Democrats are in pretty good shape.”
PPP surveyed 1,354 New Hampshire voters, including 528 Republican primary voters, from January 9th-12th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 2.7% and for the Republican primary part it’s +/-4.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Jeanne Shaheen’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Brown?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Rubens?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Testerman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Republican
Scott Brown, who would you vote for?
Jeanne Shaheen……………………………………… 46%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Republican
Jim Rubens, who would you vote for?
Jeanne Shaheen……………………………………… 49%
Jim Rubens…………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Republican
Bob Smith, who would you vote for?
Jeanne Shaheen……………………………………… 48%
Bob Smith ………………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Republican
Karen Testerman, who would you vote for?
Jeanne Shaheen……………………………………… 47%
Karen Testerman …………………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Maggie Hassan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .52%
Disapprove…………. .27%
Not sure …………….. .21%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Binnie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Hemingway?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Lambert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chuck Morse?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Bill
Binnie, who would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 51%
Bill Binnie……………………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q17 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican
Andrew Hemingway, who would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 51%
Andrew Hemingway…………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q18 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican
George Lambert, who would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 50%
George Lambert………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q19 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican
Chuck Morse, who would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 50%
Chuck Morse…………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q20 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q21 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kelly
Ayotte’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .38%
Not sure …………….. .20%
Q22 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Maggie
Hassan, who would you vote for?
Kelly Ayotte………… .46%
Maggie Hassan…… .40%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q23 Would you support or oppose requiring
background checks on individuals who
purchase guns at gun shows?
Support ……………… .82%
Oppose ……………… .11%
Not sure …………….. . 6%
Q24 Does Kelly Ayotte’s vote against requiring
background checks make you more likely to
support her for re-election, less likely, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………….. .13%
Less likely ………….. .42%
Doesn’t make a
difference …………….43%
Not sure …………….. . 3%
Q25 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ……………… .60%
Oppose ……………… .29%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q26 Congress is considering whether to continue or
cut off federal unemployment benefits for
workers whose state unemployment benefits
have ended but cannot find a job. Do you think
that Congress should continue or cut off federal
unemployment benefits at this time?
Strongly feel they
should continue
them……………………43%
Somewhat feel they
should continue
them……………………20%
Strongly feel they
should cut them off .20%
Somewhat feel they
should cut them off .11%
Not sure …………….. . 5%
Q27 Do you believe that man-made climate change
is occurring, or not?
Believe it is
occurring ……………..58%
Believe it is not……. .30%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q28 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement? ‘The winter weather over the last
week shows that the concept of global warming
is a fraud.’
Agree ………………… .23%
Disagree ……………. .57%
Not sure …………….. .19%
Q29 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………….. .39%
Disapprove…………. .46%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q30 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful…… . 4%
Somewhat
successful ……………24%
Somewhat
unsuccessful ………..25%
Very unsuccessful.. .40%
Not sure …………….. . 7%
Q31 Has the legalization of gay marriage in New
Hampshire had a positive or negative impact
on your life, or has it not had any impact at all?
Positive impact……. .20%
Negative impact ….. .14%
No impact at all …… .66%
Q32 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
It should be allowed 60%
It should not ……….. .29%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q33 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q34 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q35 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q36 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 28%
Republican……………………………………………… 27%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 44%
Q37 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q38 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q39 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Brown?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Rubens?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Testerman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q5 Given the choices of Scott Brown, Andy Martin,
Jim Rubens, Bob Smith, and Karen Testerman,
who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Senate this fall?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 42%
Andy Martin…………………………………………….. 11%
Jim Rubens…………………………………………….. 8%
Bob Smith ………………………………………………. 11%
Karen Testerman …………………………………….. 7%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 22%
Q6 If Scott Brown was not a candidate for the
Senate this fall, who would you support, given
the choices of Andy Martin, Jim Rubens, Bob
Smith, and Karen Testerman?
Andy Martin…………………………………………….. 4%
Jim Rubens…………………………………………….. 12%
Bob Smith ………………………………………………. 26%
Karen Testerman …………………………………….. 10%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 47%
Q7 Would you be more or less likely to support a
candidate in the primary for Senate who is prochoice
on the issue of abortion, or would it not
make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 20%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 34%
Wouldn’t make a difference……………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Would you be more or less likely to support a
candidate in the primary for Senate who
supports a ban on the ownership of assault
weapons, or would it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 22%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 48%
Wouldn’t make a difference……………………….. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 Would you be more or less likely to support a
candidate in the primary for Senate who moved
to New Hampshire from another state to run for
office, or would it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 4%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 37%
Wouldn’t make a difference……………………….. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 0%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 0%
Republican……………………………………………… 56%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 44%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 39%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
