Polls

Scott Walker improves in prospective recall races

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Scott Walker has been a divisive governor, for sure, but he is no longer among the most unpopular governors in the country.  And though Democrats may get the requisite numbers of signatures to recall him, Wisconsinites do not have much desire to actually see him leave office before he is up for re-election naturally in 2014.

Walker’s approval rating is up since PPP last polled the state in August, with 47% approving and 51% disapproving, versus 45-53.  PPP has found 11 governors whose constituents like them less this year.  Walker has inched up a bit with his own party, and independents have flipped in the last three months, from 44-53 to 52-44.  The number of folks saying they would like Walker to be recalled is up a hair from 47% to 48%, and the ones who do not want him yanked down from 50% to 49%.  But that is a negligible difference.  All of that change is from Democrats, frustrated after failing to take over the state senate, becoming more resolute in opposing Walker.  Independents are less in favor of another recall campaign since August, opposing it 40-57, versus 46-50.

If the recall petition does go through, it will be even harder to actually defeat Walker.  Even had Russ Feingold not turned down the opportunity, he would only have led Walker by three points (49-46), down from seven in August.  Tom Barrett led Walker by one point then, but trails by two now (48-46).  The other Democrats tested are all far less known, and they all trail by five to eight points: former Rep. David Obey, 47-42 (47-44 in August); Rep. Ron Kind, 47-41 (46-43); State Rep. Peter Barca, 48-42; State Sen. Jon Erpenbach, 47-40; Rep. Steve Kagen, 47-39; and Dane County Exec. Kathleen Falk, 49-41.  Walker leads by 13 to 21 points with independents.

“It won’t be easy for Democrats to recall Scott Walker,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters aren’t as angry with him as they were earlier in the year and if Russ Feingold’s really out of the mix there’s not an obvious Democrat to pit against him.”

PPP surveyed 1,170 Wisconsin voters from October 20th to 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 47%
Disapprove………… 51%
Not sure ……………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Barca?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Barrett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Erpenbach?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kathleen Falk?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Russ Feingold?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Kagen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Kind?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Obey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q10 Would you support or oppose recalling Scott
Walker from office before his term is up?
Support ………………………………………………….. 48%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q11 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Peter
Barca, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 48%
Peter Barca…………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q12 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Tom
Barrett, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 48%
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q13 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Jon
Erpenbach, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
Jon Erpenbach………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q14 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat
Kathleen Falk, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 49%
Kathleen Falk………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q15 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Russ
Feingold, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 46%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q16 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Steve
Kagen, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
Steve Kagen …………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q17 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Ron
Kind, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
Ron Kind………………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q18 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat David
Obey, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 47%
David Obey …………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q19 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the State Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 46%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%

Q23 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%

Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

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