Raleigh,
N.C. – Florida Gov.
Rick Scott is rumored to be planning to spend as much as $100 million to get
re-elected next year. According to PPP’s latest poll, which finds him trailing
three possible Democratic challengers, he’s going to need all the help he can
get.
In four
hypothetical match-ups, Scott trails Charlie Crist by 12 points (40/52), Pam
Iorio by 7 points (37/44), Alex Sink by 5 points (40/45) and leads Nan Rich by
6 points (42/36). Crist takes a whopping 29% of the Republican vote against
Scott, exactly in line with PPP’s January poll of the Florida governor’s race.
Scott’s abysmal
-24 job approval rating (33/57) is also exactly in line with the results from
PPP’s January poll. Scott barely has the approval of his own party—Republicans
approve of his job performance by a slim 46/42 margin. 52% of Democrats, 44% of
independents and 18% of Republicans think Scott is too conservative.
“Rick
Scott’s decision to support Medicaid expansion doesn’t seem to have boosted his
re-election prospects,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s
still facing a very uphill battle for a second term.”
Crist
has the best favorability rating (+3) and highest name recognition (89%) of the
potential Democrats running, although the 46% to 43% split is worse than the
49% to 38% spread PPP found for Crist in January. Democratic primary voters
have a strongly favorable opinion (66/24) of Crist. He would also clear the
primary field with 50% support, followed by 21% for Sink, 9% for Pam Iorio and
3% for Nan Rich.
Scott might
not even be the GOP’s nominee in 2014. 43% of Republican primary voters want
someone else to be the party’s gubernatorial candidate next year, while 42%
support Scott and 14% are not sure. Scott may be vulnerable in theory, but he
leads three potential primary challengers by hefty margins. He leads Pam Bondi
by 19 points (46/27), Adam Putnam by 24 points (48/24) and Ted Yoho by 41
points (54/13).
PPP surveyed 500 Florida voters as well as 300 usual
Democratic primary voters and 326 Republican primary voters from March 15th
to 18th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.4%, +/-5.7%
for the Democratic portion and +/-5.4% for the GOP portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .33%
Disapprove…………. .57%
Not sure …………….. .10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pam Iorio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nan Rich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Sink?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie
Crist, who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 40%
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Pam
Iorio, who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 37%
Pam Iorio ……………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Nan
Rich, who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 42%
Nan Rich………………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Alex Sink,
who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 40%
Alex Sink………………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 Do you think Rick Scott is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 13%
Too conservative……………………………………… 38%
About right ……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pam Iorio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nan Rich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Sink?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q5 Given the choices of Charlie Crist, Pam Iorio,
Nan Rich, and Alex Sink, who would you most
like to be the Democratic candidate for
Governor next year?
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 50%
Pam Iorio ……………………………………………….. 9%
Nan Rich………………………………………………… 3%
Alex Sink………………………………………………… 21%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 16%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 28%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 9%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 60%
Man……………………………………………………….. 40%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Governor next year to
be Rick Scott or someone else?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 42%
Someone else…………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Rick Scott and Pam Bondi, who
would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 46%
Pam Bondi ……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Rick Scott and Adam Putnam, who
would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 48%
Adam Putnam…………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q4 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Rick Scott and Ted Yoho, who would
you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 54%
Ted Yoho………………………………………………… 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 27%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
