Raleigh, N.C. – Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP’s newest national poll. He’s at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.
Part of the reason for Santorum’s surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney’s favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That’s a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28).
Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ he’s now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney.
The best thing Romney might have going for him right now is Gingrich’s continued presence in the race. If Gingrich dropped out 58% of his supporters say they would move to Santorum, while 22% would go to Romney and 17% to Paul. Santorum gets to 50% in the Newt free field to 28% for Romney and 15% for Paul.
“It’s been an amazingly fast ascent to first place for Rick Santorum,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s important to keep in mind though that fewer than half of his voters are firmly committed to him. When he comes under attack in the coming days his lead could evaporate just as quickly as it was created.”
PPP surveyed 656 usual Republican primary voters nationwide on February 9th and 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 38%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 48%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 52%
Q7 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 18%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 37%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 15%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .45%
Newt Gingrich …….. .42%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .61%
Ron Paul ……………. .26%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .32%
Rick Santorum……. .56%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q13 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 49%
Are not …………………………………………………… 51%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q16 If you are a Republican, press 1. If an
independent, press 2.
Republican……………………………………………… 83%
Independent……………………………………………. 17%
Q17 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
