Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Santorum is headed for a commanding win in Louisiana on Saturday. We find him with 42% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, and 2% for Buddy Roemer.
It’s interesting to look at these numbers in the context of last week’s results in Alabama and Mississippi. Mitt Romney averaged 30% in those two contests, and that’s about where he is here. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich combined for 64% in those two contests, and they combine for a relatively similar 60% here. The big difference though is that conservative voters appears to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now, and that’s why Louisiana is likely to be much more lopsided than either of last week’s contests were. If Gingrich was completely out of the race Santorum would have a 22 point lead, 53-31, over Romney here with Paul at 11%.
Santorum’s entire lead in Louisiana is coming with the furthest right factions of the Republican Party. He leads Romney 50-23 with ‘very conservative’ voters, 44-22 with Tea Partiers, and 51-23 with Evangelicals. Santorum also appears to have the late momentum on his side. Among those who’ve decided who to vote for in the last few days he’s at 47% to just 25% for Romney. That suggests he could end up winning by an ever wider margin than he has in this poll.
Romney’s up only 37-33 in urban areas, which have been one of his strong suits. He’s running slightly behind Santorum, 38-29 in suburban areas. And he’s getting absolutely crushed, 50-23, in rural areas. Southern Republicans still aren’t warming up to Romney. His 49/41 favorability rating runs far behind both Santorum (70/22) and Gingrich (59/30).
“Rick Santorum’s headed for another victory in the South tomorrow,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The good news for Mitt Romney is that the next month of the campaign will play out on much better terrain for him.”
PPP surveyed 650 likely Republican primary voters on March 21st and 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,
or do you plan to vote on election day?
Already voted………………………………………….. 11%
Plan to vote on election day………………………. 89%
Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Buddy Roemer, Mitt Romney, or
Rick Santorum?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 2%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 30%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 42%
Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican
candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Buddy Roemer, Mitt Romney, and
Rick Santorum. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q5 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 67%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 33%
Q6 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Roemer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 If the Republican candidates were just Ron
Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 32%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 53%
Q16 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q17 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 57%
Are not …………………………………………………… 43%
Q18 Do you live in an urban, suburban, or rural
area?
Urban…………………………………………………….. 18%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 39%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 43%
Q19 Which best describes when you decided who
to vote for: in the last few days, the last week,
the last month, or earlier than that?
In the last few days ………………………………….. 8%
In the last week……………………………………….. 6%
In the last month ……………………………………… 30%
Earlier than that ………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q20 Are you Catholic, Protestant, another religion,
not religious, or do you not care to say?
Catholic………………………………………………….. 35%
Protestant ………………………………………………. 40%
Another religion……………………………………….. 9%
Not religious……………………………………………. 2%
Don’t care to say……………………………………… 13%
Q21 Do you think Rick Santorum is Catholic,
Protestant, a Mormon, another religion, not
religious at all, or are you not sure?
Catholic………………………………………………….. 55%
Protestant ………………………………………………. 15%
Mormon………………………………………………….. 1%
Another religion……………………………………….. 6%
Not religious at all ……………………………………. 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q22 Do you think Mitt Romney is Catholic,
Protestant, a Mormon, another religion, not
religious at all, or are you not sure?
Catholic………………………………………………….. 4%
Protestant ………………………………………………. 2%
Mormon………………………………………………….. 81%
Another religion……………………………………….. 2%
Not religious at all ……………………………………. 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q23 Do you think Governor Bobby Jindal should run
for President in 2016, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 46%
He should not………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q24 Do you approve or disapprove of former
President George W. Bush’s handling of
Hurricane Katrina?
Approve …………………………………………………. 67%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q25 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of New Orleans?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q26 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Baton Rouge?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q27 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Shreveport?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q28 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Duke?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 75%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q29 Do you consider yourself to be an LSU fan?
Yes………………………………………………………… 78%
No …………………………………………………………. 22%
Q30 (LSU fans:) Do you approve or disapprove of
the job Les Miles is doing as football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q31 Do you think the bounty program the Saints
were alleged to have on opposing
quarterbacks was appropriate or
inappropriate?
Appropriate …………………………………………….. 15%
Inappropriate…………………………………………… 70%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q32 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sean Payton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 74%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q33 Do you agree or disagree with the NFL’s
decision to suspend Sean Payton for the 2012
season?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 19%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q34 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gregg Williams?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q35 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Drew Brees?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 94%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
