Polls

Santorum down five, Romney seven vs. Obama nationally

| Dustin Ingalls

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PresidentGraphRaleigh, N.C. –
Mitt Romney is not only sinking in his bid to grab the Republican nomination…but he is also at his worst standing versus his hopeful foe since October 2009.  Just two months ago, Romney edged ahead of President Obama by two points in PPP’s monthly national survey, but the former Massachusetts governor now trails the president by seven—two points worse than the new leader, Rick Santorum, and only one point better than Ron Paul.  This is also the first time someone other than Romney has performed the best against the president since April 2011.

Romney trails 49-42, down two points from 49-44 last month.  Santorum has improved three points on the margin from a 50-42 deficit to only 49-44 now.  President Obama has inched up three points versus Ron Paul (from 47-42 to 49-41), and five over Newt Gingrich (from 49-42 to 52-40).  Obama leads Paul by one, Santorum by four, Romney by nine, and Gingrich by 19 points with independents.  Santorum is the strongest of the Republicans with the GOP, but still loses 12% of them to Obama, while Obama cedes only 8-11% of his party versus any opponent.

Santorum is still under water in voters’ eyes personally, with 39% seeing him favorably and 46% unfavorably, but that is up 14 points from 30-51 in the last poll.  Meanwhile, Romney is now the second least-liked after Gingrich; he has declined 10 points to 29-57.  Gingrich is down four to 24-62, while Paul is actually up six to 30-54.

Poll respondents claim to have voted for Obama by only two points in 2008, versus his actual seven-point victory over John McCain.  Were turnout to mirror that of four years ago, Obama would actually top Romney, 52-41, and Santorum, 52-43.

“One of Mitt Romney’s strongest arguments has always been that he would be the toughest GOP opponent for Barack Obama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It no longer looks like that’s necessarily the case.”

PPP surveyed 1,200 American voters from February 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roseanne Barr?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Green Party candidate
Roseanne Barr, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Roseanne Barr………………………………………… 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%

Q11 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q12 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q13 Do you think the economy is improving, getting
worse, or staying about the same?
Improving……………………………………………….. 41%
Getting worse………………………………………….. 31%
Staying about the same ……………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%

Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%

Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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