Polls

Rubio, Hillary lead primaries, Paul gaining

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Rand Paul’s well publicized filibuster last month has vaulted him
up the list of Republican contenders in PPP’s newest look ahead to the
2016 Presidential contest.

Marco Rubio continues to lead nationally, as he has on all four of
our 2016 polls so far. He’s at 21% this month, basically the same as 22%
the month before the State of the Union address. Rubio’s favorability
of 62/10 is slightly better than 59/12 in early February. The whole
water drinking episode hasn’t had any effect on his standing- nor has
his stance on immigration reform.

The big move though has come from Paul. In early February he was in
6th place among Republican contenders at just 10%. Now he’s vaulted all
the way up to 2nd place at 17%. Chris Christie is 3rd at 15% and Paul
Ryan and Jeb Bush are tied for 4th at 12%. Rounding out the folks we
polled are Rick Santorum at 5%, Bobby Jindal at 4%, Rick Perry at 2%,
and Susana Martinez at 1%.

There is a lot of skepticism about Christie from conservative voters.
Among those identifying as ‘very conservative’ 35% see him positively
to 36% with a negative opinion. Christie’s overall net favorability of
+12 at 41/29 ranks him 8th most popular out of the 9 Republicans we
looked at, leading only Susana Martinez who is not yet well known on a
national level.

Rubio leads the Republicans among conservatives, while Christie has
the advantage with moderates. The problem for Christie is that only 19%
of primary voters are moderates while 74% are conservatives.

On the Democratic side support for Hillary Clinton to be the party
nominee has hit its highest level of support in our national polling
since the election last year. 64% of the party’s voters want her to be
the candidate to 18% for Joe Biden, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, and 3% for
Andrew Cuomo with no one else polling above 2%. Clinton has majority
support from liberals and moderates, men and women, African Americans,
Latinos, and white voters, and voters within every age group that we
track.

If Clinton doesn’t run 49% of Democrats say they would support Biden to
11% for Warren, 10% for Cuomo, and 7% for Kirsten Gillibrand with no one
else above 3%. And if neither Clinton nor Biden runs Democrats have no
clue who they want- 22% go for Cuomo and 18% for Warren but the big
winner is someone else or undecided at 36%.

When it comes to general election match ups Hillary Clinton leads the
Republicans we tested against her by margins ranging from 4 to 7
points. Chris Christie comes the closest at 46/42, followed by Rand Paul
at 49/43 and then Marco Rubio at 49/42 and Paul Ryan at 50/43. We’ve
consistently found that Christie would be the strongest Republican
candidate but the problem for him is that Obama voters (42/24) like him
better than Romney voters (36/31), which could making securing the
nomination a problem.

Joe Biden does on average 6 points worse than Hillary Clinton in
general election match ups against the Republicans. He leads Rubio
(46/44), Ryan (48/45), and Paul (47/43), but by narrower margins than
Clinton in all three cases. And he actually trails Christie by a pretty
large margin at 49/40.

PPP surveyed 1,247
voters, including an oversample of 666 usual Democratic primary voters and
1,125 Republican primary voters, from March 27 to March 30.  The margin of
error for the overall sample is +/-2.8%, +/-3.8% for the Democratic portion,
and +/-2.9% for the Republican portion. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirsten Gillibrand?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susana Martinez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deval Patrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%

Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%

Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%

Q19 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q21 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q22 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q23 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 40%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q24 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 47%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q25 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Marco
Rubio, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 46%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q26 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 48%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q27 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q28 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%

Q29 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q30 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%

Q31 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q32 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susana Martinez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 75%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q10 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez, Rand Paul,
Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 12%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 15%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 4%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 1%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 17%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 2%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 21%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 12%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 84%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirsten Gillibrand?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deval Patrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%

Q10 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 18%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 64%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 5%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 6%

Q11 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Andrew
Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley,
Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner,
and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like
to see as the Democratic candidate for
President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 49%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 10%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 7%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 2%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 2%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 3%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 11%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 15%

Q12 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 22%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 5%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 8%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 4%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 5%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 18%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 36%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 30%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 9%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 5%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 35%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

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