Raleigh, N.C.– After his star performance at the
convention last week Florida Republicans say they’d slightly prefer Marco Rubio
to Jeb Bush as their Presidential candidate in 2016, in the event that Mitt
Romney loses this fall. 24% say Rubio would be their top choice to 22% for
Bush, with Condoleezza Rice at 12%, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, and Paul
Ryan all at 10%, Rand Paul at 4%, Sarah Palin at 3%, and Rick Santorum at 1%.
Rubio leads the way thanks to strong support from Tea Party voters. He stands
at 34% with them to 18% for Bush, 15% for Ryan, and 12% for Huckabee. He
also has the advantage with evangelicals at 29% to 17% for Bush, 14% for Huckabee,
and 11% each for Rice and Ryan.
One thing that’s clear is there will be a lot of potential candidates who
GOP voters love in 2016 if Romney falters. 4 of the candidates come in over 80%
in their personal numbers with Republican voters- Rice at 90/6, Bush at 87/8,
Rubio at 87/9, and Ryan at 84/9. It’s a completely different story on the
Democratic side in terms of the depth of the bench. Hillary Clinton at 84/11 is
the only potential candidate on that front over 80%, at 84/11. Joe Biden’s the
only other Democrat we tested who even has over 50% name recognition, coming in
at 69/20.
Clinton is overwhelmingly who Florida Democrats would like as their next
candidate. 67% pick her to 11% for Biden, 8% for Cuomo, and 2% for Warren. All
of the other Democrats measure at less than 1%, with 11% undecided. Clinton
polls at 74% with liberals, 71% with seniors, 70% with whites, 70% with African
Americans, 68% with men, 67% with women, 67% with moderates, 64% with young
voters, and 57% with Hispanics. There’s no segment of the party that she’s not
extremely strong with.
If Clinton didn’t run Biden would be the first choice of Democrats at 31% to
21% for Cuomo, 8% for Warren, 6% for O’Malley, 2% each for Patrick and Warner,
and less than 1% for Schweitzer. And if neither Clinton nor Biden runs it’s
really up for grabs- 43% of voters would be undecided in that instance with 31%
for Cuomo, 10% for Warren, 7% for Patrick, 6% for O’Malley, 3% for Warner, and
less than 1% for Schweitzer.
PPP surveyed 599
Republican primary and 400 Democratic primary voters from August 31st
to September 2nd . The margin of error for the Republicans is +/-4% and for the
Democrats it’s +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .87%
Disapprove…………. . 9%
Not sure …………….. . 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 90%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 84%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 87%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q10 If Mitt Romney was not a candidate in 2016,
and the Republican candidates for President
were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, Condoleezza Rice,
Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum,
who would you most like to see as the GOP
candidate for President?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 22%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 10%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 10%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 4%
Condoleezza Rice……………………………………. 12%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 24%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 10%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 4%
Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 43%
Are not …………………………………………………… 57%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 86%
African-American …………………………………….. 2%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 36%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 84%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deval Patrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q9 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Deval
Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 11%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 67%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 8%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 0%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 0%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q10 If Hillary Clinton didn’t run for President in
2016, who would you most like to see as the
Democratic nominee?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 31%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 21%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 6%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 2%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 8%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 29%
Q11 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 31%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 6%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 7%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 3%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 10%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 43%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 27%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 12%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 4%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 61%
Man……………………………………………………….. 39%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
