Romney unusually strong in SC, DeMint if he jumps in

Raleigh, N.C. – While he is certainly vulnerable, Mitt Romney’s status as the nominal early frontrunner in the Republican presidential race is cemented with PPP’s latest numbers from South Carolina. When PPP last polled the state in January, Mike Huckabee led with 26% to Romney’s 20%, Sarah Palin’s 18%, Newt Gingrich’s 13%, Ron Paul’s 7%, Tim Pawlenty’s 4%, and Mitch Daniels’ 3%. As in Iowa, which PPP polled last week, Huckabee’s absence has left Romney with the lead, which he holds in the four earliest voting states, along with Nevada and New Hampshire.

Romney now gets 27% to Palin’s 18%, Gingrich’s and Herman Cain’s 12%, Michele Bachmann’s 9%, Paul and Pawlenty still at 7% and 4% respectively, and Jon Huntsman at 2%. Along with Bachmann and Huntsman, Cain was tested for the first time in this state, and has also debuted in double digits in Iowa, Ohio, and nationally. Unlike elsewhere, where he is inching into double digits, Pawlenty has not yet shown momentum in South Carolina.

If Palin does not run, it would only strengthen Romney. Her support would spread pretty evenly, with the plurality going to the candidate some consider her doppelganger, Bachmann, who yet cannot get out of fourth place, with 13% to Romney’s 30%, Cain’s and Gingrich’s 15%, Paul’s 10%, Pawlenty’s 5%, and Huntsman still at 2%.

South Carolina’s Jim DeMint has recently walked back previous denials of interest in running. Should he jump back into the field, he would start out as the favorite to take his state’s delegates to the convention. DeMint would earn 35% to Romney’s 21%, Palin’s 11%, Cain’s 8%, Gingrich’s 6%, Bachmann’s 5%, Paul’s 4%, and Pawlenty’s 2%.

“We’ve polled all 4 of the key early Republican contests in the last 2 months and Mitt Romney leads them all,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The post-Mike Huckabee landscape looks very good for him.”

PPP surveyed 1,000 usual South Carolina Republican primary voters from June 2^nd to 5^th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim
DeMint’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 71%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Roemer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%

Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Fred Karger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%

Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%

Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Maggie Patton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%

Q20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%

Q21 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next
year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 12%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 18%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%

Q22 If Sarah Palin didn’t run and the choices were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Maggie
Patton, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 13%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 15%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Maggie Patton…………………………………………. 0%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 30%
Someone Else/Undecided ………………………… 11%

Q23 What if Jim DeMint ran for President and the
candidates were Michele Bachmann, Herman
Cain, Jim DeMint, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin,
Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney.
Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Jim DeMint……………………………………………… 35%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 11%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Someone Else/Undecided ………………………… 8%

Q24 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q25 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 55%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q26 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q27 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 54%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q28 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q29 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 42%
No …………………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q30 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%

Q31 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q32 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 78%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%

Q31 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Romney unusually strong in SC, DeMint if he jumps in

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