Raleigh, N.C. – Despite the emergence of Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry as serious challengers to Mitt Romney’s nomination, Romney has only increased his stranglehold on Nevada’s delegates to the Republican convention since PPP last polled there in April. Then, he led with 24% of the vote over seven other opponents, the next coming in at 16%. Now, he holds 31% over eight opponents, with the nearest challenger at 18%.
Perry, polled for the first time in the Silver State, is the runner-up at 18%. Palin and Bachmann are tied for third at 10%, followed by Ron Paul’s 9%, Herman Cain’s 7%, Newt Gingrich’s 6%, and Tim Pawlenty’s and Jon Huntsman’s 1%. Absent Palin, Romney and Perry tread water, with Bachmann jumping to 14%, Paul to 11%, Cain and Gingrich to 8%, and Huntsman to 2%. Nevada is one state where Romney actually leads with the most conservative voters, albeit only 25-22 or 24-23 over Perry. Perry could be a serious threat to take what looked like Bachmann’s constituency, and those two and Palin fracturing the Tea Party could help Romney slip by.
As in PPP’s recent poll in Utah, there is little love for Huntsman with Nevada’s sizeable Mormon population. Gingrich has fallen from his third-place 11% in the last three months, and Pawlenty has nosedived from 8%, while Paul is up from 5%, Bachmann from 7%, and Palin from 8%.
Meanwhile, Byron Georgiou is making no headway in his challenge to Shelley Berkley for the Senate Democratic nomination. In April, Berkley dominated him, 65-8, in a two-way vote. Now, that is 71-6. 70% of Democrats still do not know who Georgiou is, and three times as many of those who do have an opinion on him see him negatively as see him favorably. Asked straight-up whether Georgiou should drop out or not, more than twice as many (34%) say he should as say he should not (15%). Only 10% say Berkley should leave the race, while 68% want her to remain in it.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Nevada Democratic primary voters, with a +/- 4.9% margin of error, and 732 usual Republican primary voters, with a +/- 3.6% margin of error, from July 28th to 31st. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 1%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 18%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 6%
Q7 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
president, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 14%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 1%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 18%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 7%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 42%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
Q11 Are you a Mormon or another religion?
Mormon………………………………………………….. 13%
Another religion……………………………………….. 87%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Byron Georgiou?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q3 If the Democratic candidates for Senate next
year were Shelley Berkley and Byron
Georgiou, who would you vote for?
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 71%
Byron Georgiou……………………………………….. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you think that Byron Georgiou should drop
out of the race for US Senate, or not?
Should drop out ………………………………………. 34%
Should not drop out …………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q5 Do you think that Shelley Berkley should drop
out of the race for US Senate, or not?
Berkley should drop out ……………………………. 10%
Berkley should not drop out ………………………. 68%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Harry
Reid’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 78%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 31%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 9%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 59%
Man……………………………………………………….. 41%
Q9 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 21%
White …………………………………………………….. 58%
African American……………………………………… 16%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
