Polls

Romney set to win big in Arizona

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Mitt Romney is headed for an overwhelming victory in Arizona’s primary on Tuesday. He’s at 43% to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Newt Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.

You can make a fair argument that Romney’s already won the Arizona primary. Almost half of those planning to vote have already cast their ballots, and Romney has a 48-25 advantage over Santorum with those folks. That lead makes it nearly impossible for Santorum to make up the difference on election day, and Romney has a 39-27 advantage with those planning to vote on Tuesday anyway.

Romney’s winning basically winning every voter group in Arizona, even those he’s tended to do quite poorly with. He leads Santorum 39-33 with Evangelicals, 39-23 with Tea Party voters (Santorum’s in 3rd, Gingrich is actually 2nd at 30%), and 37-29 with those describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ We project the Mormon vote at 14%. Romney leads 77-9 with them, but he has a 38-29 advantage with non-Mormons as well. Seniors are a key base of support for him in Arizona as they are everywhere. He leads 53-22 with them.

Santorum’s image has taken a big hit over the last week in the state. His net favorability has dropped 15 points from +34 (61/27) to just +19 (54/35). The debate Wednesday night may have damaged his cause. 51% of likely voters report having watched it and he’s actually in 3rd place with those folks at 21%, behind Romney’s 43% and Gingrich’s 23%. Santorum may also have misstepped by talking too much about social issues in the last few weeks. 68% of Arizona voters say economic issues are their top concern when deciding who to vote for, compared to just 11% who say social issues are paramount. With the folks most concerned about economic issues he trails Romney 48-24.

“Arizona looks like it will provide one of Mitt Romney’s most dominating victories yet,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s basically winning every key segment of the electorate. And Rick Santorum looks to have shot himself in the foot with his debate performance last week.”

PPP surveyed 515 likely Republican primary voters on February 26th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,
or do you plan to vote on election day?
Already voted………………………………………….. 47%
Plan to vote on election day………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%

Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 25%

Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican
candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 15%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 27%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 3%

Q5 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 66%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 34%

Q6 Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 26%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 1%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 Did you watch the debate in Mesa on
Wednesday night?
Yes………………………………………………………… 51%
No …………………………………………………………. 49%

Q12 Generally speaking, would you prefer to vote
for a candidate you agree with most on the
issues or a candidate who you think is best
able to beat Barack Obama?
A candidate you agree with most on the
issues …………………………………………………….53%
A candidate you think is best able to beat
Obama……………………………………………………35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q13 Are you more concerned with a candidate’s
position on economic issues like jobs,
spending, taxes, and bailouts, or a candidate’s
position on social issues like abortion, birth
control, gay marriage, and immigration?
Economic issues……………………………………… 68%
Social issues…………………………………………… 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Babeu?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%

Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%

Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 42%

Q18 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 7%
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q20 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 34%
Are not …………………………………………………… 66%

Q21 Are you a Mormon, or not?
Are a Mormon …………………………………………. 14%
Are not …………………………………………………… 86%

Q22 Are you a Republican or an independent?
Republican……………………………………………… 87%
Independent……………………………………………. 13%

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