Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney looks to be headed for another pair of victories in Tuesday’s primaries. Maryland is likely to be a blow out with Romney at 52% to 27% for Rick Santorum, 10% for Newt Gingrich, and 9% for Ron Paul. Wisconsin should be a good deal closer. There Romney’s at 43% to 36% for Santorum, 11% for Paul, and 8% for Gingrich.
Romney’s starting to have some success with groups that have generally been key components of Santorum’s base over the last two months. For instance he leads with Tea Party voters in both states, 43-34 in Maryland and 46-38 in Wisconsin. He’s also becoming more competitive with Evangelical voters, leading 43-36 with them in Maryland and trailing only 47-35 with them in Wisconsin. In the states where Santorum’s been victorious he’s generally won Evangelicals by a much wider margin than that.
The only thing keeping Santorum competitive in Wisconsin is the state’s open primary. He actually trails Romney 50-36 with Republican voters but 40% of those saying they’re likely to vote are either independents or Democrats and with those folks Santorum leads 37-32, making it more competitive overall. If those non-Republicans don’t actually end up turning out Romney can expect to win by a wider margin.
Among voters who decided ‘in the last few days,’ 9% of the Wisconsin electorate, Santorum leads Romney 52-27. That makes you wonder whether Paul Ryan’s late endorsement of Romney was much of a game changer.
Newt Gingrich might not be ready to leave the GOP race for President, but the party base is ready for him to. In Wisconsin 63% of voters think he should drop out, while 27% think he should continue on. In Maryland it’s 57% who believe he should drop out to 33% who believe he should stay in.
“Increasingly Mitt Romney is eating into Rick Santorum’s base,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That would seem to be a sign GOP voters are ready for this race to be over.”
PPP surveyed 609 likely Republican primary voters in Wisconsin and 500 in Maryland on March 31st and April 1st.. The margins of error for the surveys are +/-4.0%, and +/-4.4% respectively. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Wisconsin Toplines
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,
or do you plan to vote on election day?
Already voted………………………………………….. 7%
Plan to vote on election day………………………. 93%
Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 56%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 21%
Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican
candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 7%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 37%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q5 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 36%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the Republican candidates were just Ron
Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 16%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for US Senate
were Jeff Fitzgerald, Mark Neumann, and
Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for?
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 18%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 25%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 25%
No …………………………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 41%
Are not …………………………………………………… 59%
Q17 Do you live in an urban, suburban, or rural
area?
Urban…………………………………………………….. 18%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 41%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 41%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If an independent, press
3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 60%
Independent……………………………………………. 37%
Q19 Which best describes when you decided who
to vote for: in the last few days, the last week,
the last month, or earlier than that?
In the last few days ………………………………….. 9%
In the last week……………………………………….. 8%
In the last month ……………………………………… 35%
Earlier than that ………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q20 Do you think that Newt Gingrich should drop
out of the Presidential race, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 63%
He should not………………………………………….. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Maryland Toplines
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,
or do you plan to vote on election day?
Already voted………………………………………….. 13%
Plan to vote on election day………………………. 87%
Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 59%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 12%
Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican
candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 51%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 29%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q5 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 27%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the Republican candidates were just Ron
Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 51%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 35%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q14 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q15 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 35%
Are not …………………………………………………… 65%
Q16 Do you live in an urban, suburban, or rural
area?
Urban…………………………………………………….. 13%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 57%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 30%
Q17 Which best describes when you decided who
to vote for: in the last few days, the last week,
the last month, or earlier than that?
In the last few days ………………………………….. 7%
In the last week……………………………………….. 9%
In the last month ……………………………………… 28%
Earlier than that ………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q18 Do you think that Newt Gingrich should drop
out of the Presidential race, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 57%
He should not………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q19 Are you more a Baltimore Ravens or
Washington Redskins fan?
Ravens…………………………………………………… 50%
Redskins………………………………………………… 24%
Neither team…………………………………………… 26%
Q20 Are you more a Baltimore Orioles or
Washington Nationals fan?
Orioles …………………………………………………… 64%
Nationals………………………………………………… 12%
Neither team…………………………………………… 25%
