Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s new Colorado poll finds voters closely divided in their feelings about both Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Mark Udall- but also that this could prove to be another place where Republicans waste an opportunity by running the wrong candidate.
In 2010 Hickenlooper defeated Tom Tancredo by 15 points. Yet despite having half a dozen candidates to choose from next year, Republicans are still leaning toward nominating Tancredo again. He gets 34% support among GOP primary voters to 15% for Scott Gessler, and 9% for Greg Brophy with the others at 3% or less.
Voters are pretty split in their opinions about Hickenlooper with 45% approving of him to 48% who disapprove. But in a head to head match up with Tancredo he still leads by 8 points at 48/40. He has similar margins against Mike Kopp (45/37) and Scott Gessler (47/40). The Republican who comes closest, despite having minimal name recognition, is actually Greg Brophy at 44/43.
We’re seeing a similar story in the Colorado Senate race. Ken Buck proved to be a very poor candidate against Michael Bennet in 2010 and lost a contest Republicans were generally expected to win all year long. And now GOP voters are ready to run him again- 45% say he’s their choice for Senate candidate to just 8% for Randy Baumgardner, 7% for Amy Stephens, and 2% or less for the others.
Voters have mixed feelings about Mark Udall- 40% approve of him and 41% disapprove. But thanks to the weak field opposing him he still leads by anywhere from 4 to 7 points against his potential Republican foes. It’s 46/42 over Buck, 47/40 over Baumgardner, and 44/37 over both Hill and Stephens.
“The rough last couple months for Democrats have certainly put John Hickenlooper and Mark Udall in a position where they could be vulnerable next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s just not clear whether the GOP is going to put forth candidates who can take advantage of that vulnerability.”
PPP surveyed 928 Colorado voters, including 355 usual Republican primary voters, from December 3rd to 4th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.2% and +/-5.2% for the GOP sample. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Hickenlooper’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brophy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Gessler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Kopp?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Tancredo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Greg Brophy, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 44%
Greg Brophy …………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Scott Gessler, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 47%
Scott Gessler ………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Mike Kopp, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 45%
Mike Kopp………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Tom Tancredo, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 48%
Tom Tancredo …………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Randy Baumgardner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Buck?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Owen Hill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Amy Stephens?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q16 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Randy
Baumgardner, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 47%
Randy Baumgardner………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q17 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Ken
Buck, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 46%
Ken Buck ……………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q18 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Owen
Hill, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 44%
Owen Hill ……………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q19 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Amy
Stephens, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 44%
Amy Stephens ………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q20 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q21 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 4%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 22%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 23%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q22 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q24 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q25 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q26 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q27 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 40%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brophy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Gessler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Kopp?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Tancredo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Randy Baumgardner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Buck?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Owen Hill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Amy Stephens?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q9 Given the choices of Greg Brophy, Scott
Gessler, Steve House, Mike Kopp, Jim
Rundberg, and Tom Tancredo, who would you
most like to see as the Republican candidate
for Governor next year?
Greg Brophy …………………………………………… 9%
Scott Gessler ………………………………………….. 15%
Steve House …………………………………………… 2%
Mike Kopp………………………………………………. 3%
Jim Rundberg …………………………………………. 3%
Tom Tancredo …………………………………………. 34%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 33%
Q10 Given the choices of Mark Aspiri, Randy
Baumgardner, Ken Buck, Owen Hill, Jaime
McMillan, and Amy Stephens, who would you
most like to see as the Republican candidate
for Senate next year?
Mark Aspiri……………………………………………… 0%
Randy Baumgardner………………………………… 8%
Ken Buck ……………………………………………….. 45%
Owen Hill ……………………………………………….. 2%
Jaime McMillan ……………………………………….. 1%
Amy Stephens ………………………………………… 7%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 37%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
