Raleigh, N.C. – Despite being a write-in candidate who had just officially declared his candidacy the morning before balloting, Rick Perry got more votes at the Ames Straw Poll a week and a half ago than did four other candidates who were listed, including previous frontrunner Mitt Romney. Now Perry is seriously challenging Romney’s dominant hold on the race, which Michele Bachmann had also begun to do in recent weeks. The current three-candidate top tier is now cemented with PPP’s latest poll of potential Iowa caucusgoers, but the media would be remiss to forget about Ron Paul, who placed a close second to Bachmann at Ames.
Polled for the first time here, Perry leads with 22% over Romney’s 19%, Bachmann’s 18%, Paul’s 16%, Herman Cain’s 7%, Newt Gingrich’s and Rick Santorum’s 5%, and Jon Huntsman’s 3%. Santorum had not been polled here before either.
If Sarah Palin jumps into the race, she would harm Bachmann and Paul but hardly makes a dent in Romney’s or Perry’s support. Perry would still lead with 21% over Romney’s 18%, Bachmann’s 15%, Paul’s 12%, and Palin’s 10%.
The two Texans, Perry and Paul, are the most personally popular Republicans who are running or could potentially. Perry’s 56-24 favorability rating, up 27 points from 21-16 in May, tops Paul’s 53-29 (up 11 points from 42-29), Santorum’s 44-22 (+11 from 29-18), Chris Christie’s 43-21 (-8 from 42-12), Ryan’s 38-21 (-11 from 42-14), Palin’s 52-36 (-12 from 59-31), Bachmann’s 47-35 (-25 from 53-16 in May), Rudy Giuliani’s 43-34 (-9 from 49-31), Romney’s 45-38 (-10 from 51-34), and Cain’s 42-35 (-7 from 38-24.
“All the momentum in the Republican race is on Rick Perry’s side now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Michele Bachmann’s growing support over the last two months has now stopped and Mitt Romney is actually losing voters in Iowa.”
PPP surveyed 317 usual Iowa Republican primary voters from August 19th to 21st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Roemer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 1%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Fred Karger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q16 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 15%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 6%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 7%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 21%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 4%
Q17 Now how about if Sarah Palin didn’t end up
running for President, but Paul Ryan did, and
the candidates were Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan,
and Rick Santorum. Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 18%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 7%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 20%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 9%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%
Q18 What if neither Sarah Palin nor Paul Ryan ran
for President, and the candidates were just
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry,
Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. Who would
you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 18%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 5%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 16%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 22%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%
Q19 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 24%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 34%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q20 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney,
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q21 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q22 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 27%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q23 Do you think the Ames Straw Poll is a good
thing or a bad thing for democracy?
Good……………………………………………………… 68%
Bad ……………………………………………………….. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q24 Do you think the Ames Straw Poll should
continue to be held or not?
It should continue to be held……………………… 69%
It should not ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q25 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 33%
No …………………………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q26 Do you believe in global warming or not?
Believe in global warming …………………………. 21%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q27 Do you believe in evolution or not?
Believe in evolution………………………………….. 35%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q28 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 48%
No …………………………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q29 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q30 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q31 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
