Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s newest look
at the Republican race for 2016 in Iowa finds a new leader. Rand Paul is at 18%
to 16% for Chris Christie, 14% for Jeb Bush, 11% for Marco Rubio, 10% for Ted
Cruz, 6% for Rick Santorum, 2% for Bobby Jindal, and 1% for Susana Martinez.
Paul also led the last time we polled New Hampshire with 28% to 25% for Rubio
and 14% for Christie.
Marco Rubio had led the way when PPP polled Iowa in February, but has
dropped 5 points since then even though his favorability rating is basically
unchanged (54/13 then, 54/14 now). Candidates rising since then are Christie
(up 4 points and also from 36/33 to 45/27 on his favorability), Paul (up 3
points and from 55/19 favorability to 60/15), and Ryan (up 5 points and from
63/16 favorability to 68/12).
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to be totally dominant,
getting 71% to 12% for Joe Biden and 5% for Elizabeth Warren with no one else
polling above 2%. Clinton is doing even better than she was in February, when
she registered at 68%. Her favorability rating is 87/7. Clinton polls at 72%
with women and 69% with men, 72% with young voters and 67% with seniors, 77%
with liberals and 63% with moderates. Clinton also led our last New Hampshire
poll with 68% to 12% for Biden and 5% for Warren.
If Clinton were to stay out, Biden becomes the big favorite. He has an 80/8
favorability rating and polls at 51% to 16% for Elizabeth Warren, 9% for Andrew
Cuomo, and 6% for Cory Booker. And if Clinton and Biden were both out of the
mix, Warren leads the way with 20% to 18% for Cuomo, 12% for Cory Booker, 7%
for Kirsten Gillibrand, 4% for Martin O’Malley, 3% for Brian Schweitzer, and 2%
for Mark Warner.
“Hillary Clinton’s had a huge lead in all Democratic polling we’ve done
everywhere,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Rand Paul
is increasingly performing the best on the Republican side.”
PPP surveyed 668 registered voters, including
260 Democratic primary voters and 250 Republican primary voters, between July 5-7,
2013. The margin of error for the overall survey was +/- 3.8%, for the
Democrats it was +/-6.1%, and for the Republicans it was +/-6.2%. This poll was
not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s
surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susana Martinez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q10 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez,
Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 14%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 16%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 10%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 2%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 1%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 18%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 11%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 15%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 45%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 80%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Booker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 87%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirsten Gillibrand?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 5%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q10 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 12%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 1%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 71%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 2%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%
Q11 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 51%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 6%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 9%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 2%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 16%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%
Q12 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 12%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 18%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 7%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 4%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 3%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 20%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 33%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 37%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 7%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 60%
Man……………………………………………………….. 40%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 35%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
General Election Toplines
Q1 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q2 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
