Raleigh, N.C. – Pat Roberts is one of the most anonymous Senators in the country. 31% of
voters approve of him, 28% disapprove, and 41% don’t have an opinion either
way. The only Senator in the county we’ve found with a higher percentage of
voters having no opinion about him is first termer Mark Kirk of Illinois.
Nevertheless Roberts shouldn’t be in too much trouble next year, at least in
a general election. He leads every Democrat we tested against him by double
digits- it’s 11 points over Kathleen Sebelius at 51/40, 15 points over Mark
Parkinson at 49/34, and 16 over Carl Brewer at 50/34.
Roberts’ low profile could give him more trouble in a primary. Just 42% of Republicans
say they would vote to re-nominate him, while 34% say they would prefer someone
‘more conservative.’ Those are pretty uninspiring numbers if a more fiery
candidate wanted to challenge him from the right. Roberts has bigger leads over
specific GOP alternatives we tested against him though- 21 points over Todd
Tiahrt at 47/26, 31 over Tim Huelskamp at 53/22, and 36 over Kris Kobach at
55/19.
Democrats might have a better chance with someone like Huelskamp as the GOP
nominee- he leads the Brewer/Sebelius/Parkinson trio by only 4-6 points.
“Pat Roberts’ low profile could make him susceptible to a primary
challenge,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s
unlikely Democrats could make this race competitive regardless of the Republican
candidate.”
Jerry Moran is Kansas’ more popular Senator with a 38% approval rating and
27% disapproving, although that makes him one of the less well known Senators
in the country as well.
PPP surveyed 1,229
registered Kansas voters, including 760 Republican primary voters, from February
21st to 24th. The margin of error for the overall sample is
+/-2.8% and for the Republicans it’s +/-3.6%. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Roberts’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q3 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Pat Roberts and Democrat Carl
Brewer, who would you vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 50%
Carl Brewer…………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Pat Roberts and Democrat Mark
Parkinson, who would you vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 49%
Mark Parkinson……………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Pat Roberts and Democrat
Kathleen Sebelius, who would you vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 51%
Kathleen Sebelius……………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Huelskamp?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Tim Huelskamp and Democrat Carl
Brewer, who would you vote for?
Tim Huelskamp……………………………………….. 40%
Carl Brewer…………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Tim Huelskamp and Democrat
Mark Parkinson, who would you vote for?
Tim Huelskamp……………………………………….. 41%
Mark Parkinson……………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Tim Huelskamp and Democrat
Kathleen Sebelius, who would you vote for?
Tim Huelskamp……………………………………….. 46%
Kathleen Sebelius……………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jerry
Moran’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q11 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Kansas, or not?
It should be allowed …………………………………. 39%
It should not ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..34%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………29%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Westboro Baptist Church?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 85%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q14 Do you consider yourself to be a Kansas or
Kansas State fan?
Kansas…………………………………………………… 39%
Kansas State ………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Snyder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 5%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Weis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Weber?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Self?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roy Williams?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q20 Given the choices of the Chicago Bears, Dallas
Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Green Bay
Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota
Vikings, New England Patriots, and St. Louis
Rams, which is your favorite NFL team?
Bears …………………………………………………….. 3%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 8%
Broncos………………………………………………….. 12%
Packers………………………………………………….. 10%
Chiefs ……………………………………………………. 41%
Vikings …………………………………………………… 3%
Patriots ………………………………………………….. 3%
Rams …………………………………………………….. 0%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite …………… 19%
Q21 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves,
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Colorado
Rockies, Kansas City Royals, New York
Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, and Texas
Rangers, which is your favorite Major League
Baseball team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 3%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 5%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 8%
Rockies………………………………………………….. 4%
Royals……………………………………………………. 49%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 5%
Cardinals………………………………………………… 6%
Rangers …………………………………………………. 1%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite …………… 20%
Q22 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q23 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q24 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q25 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Dole?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q26 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the abolitionist John Brown?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q27 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the book ‘What’s the Matter with Kansas?’
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q28 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q29 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q30 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 29%
Republican……………………………………………… 51%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q31 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q32 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
