Raleigh, N.C. – Our new Kansas survey continues to find Greg Orman in the lead for US Senate- and that Orman’s lead could expand further if Chad Taylor is able to get off the ballot. Orman leads with 41% to 34% for Pat Roberts, 6% for Taylor, and 4% for Libertarian Randall Batson. But if Taylor supporters had to choose between Orman and Roberts, they’d take Orman by a 67/16 spread. That’s enough to push Orman up to a double digit lead in a head to head match up with Roberts, at 46/36.
The big story in this race continues to be Roberts’ unpopularity. Only 29% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 46% who disapprove. Those numbers have barely budged from when he posted a 27/44 spread last month. Roberts continues to be plagued by his residence issues- only 29% of voters think he considers Kansas to be his home, compared to 53% who think it’s Washington DC.
Despite their current support of Orman, 49% of Kansans still want a US Senate that is controlled by the Republicans to only 39% who want one controlled by the Democrats. Right now only 62% of people who want a GOP controlled Senate say they’re going to vote for Roberts. If he can effectively nationalize the race- Barack Obama has a 33/58 approval rating in the state- and get those folks who want GOP control to cast their votes for him Roberts will find himself in a much better place.
In the Kansas Governor’s race we find Paul Davis leading Sam Brownback 42/38 with Libertarian Keen Umbehr at 7%. Brownback continues to be very unpopular, sporting a 36/53 approval rating. Davis still has a relatively low profile- 35% of voters have no opinion about him one way or another- but his favorability is a positive 38/26 spread among those who are familiar with him.
“We continue to find Greg Orman with an advantage over Pat Roberts,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The question is if that will be sustainable after Republicans make the argument to voters that electing Orman could potentially keep Democrats in control of the Senate.”
PPP surveyed 1,328 likely voters from September 11th to 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.7%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sam Brownback’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Davis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Sam Brownback, Democrat Paul Davis, and
Libertarian Keen Umbehr. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 38%
Paul Davis………………………………………………. 42%
Keen Umbehr………………………………………….. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Combined Horse race, with Umbehr supporters
allocated to whether they’d vote for Brownback
or Davis
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 39%
Paul Davis………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Roberts’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Orman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q8 The candidates on the ballot for Senate this fall
are Republican Pat Roberts, independent Greg
Orman, Democrat Chad Taylor, and Libertarian
Randall Batson. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 34%
Greg Orman……………………………………………. 41%
Chad Taylor…………………………………………….. 6%
Randall Batson ……………………………………….. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 (Asked only of Taylor supporters:) Are you
aware that Chad Taylor has dropped out of the
U.S. Senate race, or not?
Aware of that…………………………………………… 59%
Not aware of that …………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q10 If you had to choose between just Republican
Pat Roberts and independent Greg Orman,
who would you vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 36%
Greg Orman……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q11 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Republican Kris Kobach and Democrat Jean
Schodorf. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Kris Kobach ……………………………………………. 43%
Jean Schodorf…………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Derek Schmidt and Democrat A.J.
Kotich. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Derek Schmidt ………………………………………… 50%
A.J. Kotich………………………………………………. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q13 The candidates for state Treasurer are
Republican Ron Estes and Democrat Carmen
Alldritt. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Ron Estes ………………………………………………. 47%
Carmen Alldritt ………………………………………… 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q14 The candidates for Insurance Commissioner
are Republican Ken Selzer and Democrat
Dennis Anderson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Ken Selzer ……………………………………………… 43%
Dennis Anderson …………………………………….. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q15 In general, would you prefer that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the U.S. Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 39%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q16 Democratic Senate candidate Chad Taylor has
asked for his name to be removed from the
ballot. Do you think his name should be
removed, or not?
Think his name should be removed ……………. 63%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q17 Do you approve or disapprove of how
Secretary of State Kris Kobach has handled
the recent issues related to the U.S. Senate
race?
Approve …………………………………………………. 26%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q18 Do you think Pat Roberts spends enough time
in Kansas, or not?
Think he does …………………………………………. 19%
Think he does not ……………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q19 Do you think Pat Roberts considers his home
Kansas or Washington, D.C.?
Kansas…………………………………………………… 29%
Washington, D.C……………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q20 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jerry
Moran’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kathleen Sebelius?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q22 If the candidates for U.S. Senate in 2016 were
Republican Jerry Moran and Democrat
Kathleen Sebelius, who would you vote for?
Jerry Moran…………………………………………….. 52%
Kathleen Sebelius……………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q23 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 40%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q24 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 40%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q25 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q26 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q27 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 41%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q28 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 54%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q29 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals,
New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, St.
Louis Cardinals, or some other team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 2%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 2%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 4%
Rockies………………………………………………….. 2%
Royals……………………………………………………. 62%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 4%
A’s…………………………………………………………. 0%
Cardinals………………………………………………… 4%
Someone else / Don’t have a favorite …………. 20%
Q30 (Asked only of Royals fans:) What do you think
the outcome of the 2014 season will be for the
Royals? Do you think they will win the World
Series, win the American League but not the
World Series, make the playoffs but not win the
American League, or not make the playoffs at
all?
Win the World Series ……………………………….. 13%
Win the AL but not the World Series …………… 25%
Make the playoffs but not win the AL ………….. 45%
Not make the the playoffs at all………………….. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q31 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q32 Do you think that Roger Goodell should resign
as NFL Commissioner, or not?
Think he should resign……………………………… 29%
Think he should not …………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q33 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 10%
Q34 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 6%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q35 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q36 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 26%
Republican……………………………………………… 51%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 22%
Q37 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q38 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q39 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
